By Xhabir Deralla
As democratic institutions across Europe and the world face the growing threat of disinformation and the consequences of hybrid warfare, the structure of European democracy is under threat. Besides conventional warfare and the brutal war crimes and destruction of civilian targets in Ukraine, Russia’s ongoing campaign to destabilize the West involves infiltrating the economy, politics, and society.
The world is not merely witnessing Russian military aggression against Ukraine, a distant battlefield as some might believe. A broad offensive against democracy as a whole is underway. A significant portion of the democratic public has yet to fully grasp and accept the gravity of the situation. These are the final moments to open our eyes to the strategic, calculated moves aimed at the very foundations of human rights and freedoms.
Disinformation as a Weapon: The engine of Russia’s hybrid warfare
Disinformation is a key element of Russia’s hybrid warfare against the West. Social networks and media have become effective offensive weapons of Russian propaganda, through which the Kremlin executes its global plan to destabilize democracies. This tactic, combined with cyberattacks, economic and political influence, and election manipulation, is a crucial tool for creating tensions, polarization, and chaos in Western societies.
Those who try to convince themselves and others of their relevance – those who, in effect, differ little from those directly involved in the influence operations, whether as victims or perpetrators – will attack this text with “arguments” that “the author exaggerates and spreads panic.” The modus operandi of the operational centers that manage influence operations is well known. After so many years of domination by disinformation, false narratives, nationalist, anti-Western, and pro-Russian propaganda in public discourse in the country and region, nothing can surprise me anymore.
It’s no great revelation to say that democracy and human rights are the targets of operations aimed at bringing about a new world order. This is a time when facts and truth struggle to breathe behind heavy curtains of lies, which are the main weapon in hybrid attacks against democracy. Now, more than ever before, the public must face the threat to democracy, or at least partially open its eyes to what awaits the “old continent” in the near future.
A new order: Exploiting democratic systems to destroy democracy
Russian propaganda spreads successfully throughout Europe via networks of disinformation, fake media, and propaganda installations that operate in some countries in the shadows, but in others quite openly as part of the dominant political, academic, and media establishment (Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia, North Macedonia, and others). These networks exploit democratic systems to the maximum but are actually working to destroy democracy. Through support for extremist and populist political parties, Russia creates a climate of polarization and general insecurity in European societies.
Russia’s broader global goals include establishing an authoritarian world order where democracy and human rights are under constant attack – until their complete abolition. This is a world where human rights and freedoms are eradicated, and democratic institutions are replaced by repressive regimes controlled by the Kremlin.
The proponents of the doctrines for a new world order (Russia is just one of the aspirants) – in which the individual is just a number and a subservient element – have been waging a long-standing offensive to undermine and destroy democratic principles, human rights, and the rule of law. In short, to destroy the world as we know it. The world after the fall of the Iron Curtain and the official end of the Cold War was far from perfect, but it had a chance, a vision, and a dynamic democratic contest of strategies for strengthening democratic values, and plans for a sustainable future for humanity. That vision was challenged by authoritarian tendencies, which the democratic West (apparently) was not prepared to recognize when they emerged, but became (partially) aware of when the disease had already reached the stage of metastasis.
This is not a conspiracy theory. It’s not about a single center or some invisible board of power brokers coordinating complex operations to undermine democracy, stability, and peace in the world. It doesn’t even necessarily mean that they are coordinating with each other, but the consequences are exactly that – as if they are in perfect harmony with the same goal – to put an end to democracy, to the very concept of democratic principles, values, and standards, and to cast human rights into oblivion.
Despite clear warnings and evidence of Russia’s aggressive intentions, Europe’s political elites continue to hesitate and respond inadequately to the scale of the threat. Indecisive and slow reactions have allowed Russia to strengthen its installations within European structures, particularly in political life, where there has been a sharp rise in radical and far-right political entities. Over the past years, Russia has successfully exploited gaps and inconsistencies in democratic systems, with strong support for ultra-nationalist and far-right political parties and groups, to weaken the political systems of EU member states.
The symptoms, as I mentioned, have been visible for a long time, but people in key positions within European institutions and leading political structures ignore their causes, acting as if they are dealing with a mere cold. Unfortunately, even leading global institutions, media, academia, and civil society often view events in a fragmented way, as if they lack the capacity to understand the processes behind the events. This is unacceptable.
Europe is a crucial space where the past, present, and future of global processes intersect, but at the same time, it depends on and influences processes in other major and powerful states and regions that shape world dynamics. Here we come to a conclusion that seems to be surfacing in global developments and processes, but rarely anyone, if at all, says it directly and as things really stand. A war is on the horizon: Russia versus Europe and NATO.
Preparations for war: The increasing threat of a direct conflict between Russia and Europe
Yes – war between Russia and Europe is more than possible. Especially if Ukraine is forced to cede part of its territory in some “conflict freeze” agreement, which will be far from a lasting and just peace. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Victory Plan has faced reservations from Western allies and strong opposition from Hungary and Slovakia (EU and NATO members), which will only be another reason for Russia’s aggressive policy to continue and expand to other parts of European soil. Simply put, the Kremlin will not be satisfied with just “freezing the conflict” in Ukraine.
Russian dictator Putin is aware that Europe’s curtain, woven from corruption, indecision, and disunity, will eventually fall. That is why he continues to pursue a doctrine aimed at destabilizing the West. He is rapidly working to support far-right and neo-Nazi political parties and groups, with the goal of destroying democracy. His plan is to restore at least part of Russia’s “imperial glory” or, if you prefer, the Soviet Union – when the Russian boot trampled much of Europe. Hungarian authoritarian leader Viktor Orbán has “forgotten” the brutal Soviet aggression against his country in 1956 and against Czechoslovakia in 1968, as reminded by EU President Ursula von der Leyen in her fierce speech in the European Parliament (October 9, 2024).
Although it is not very visible to the European public, the fact is that part of Europe is already preparing for a possible military attack from Russia. Slowly but surely, the war with Russia is becoming more likely. This is supported by many facts and arguments, starting with the increasingly aggressive Russian rhetoric that has intensified since the start of the full-scale military aggression against Ukraine in 2022, when it became clear that the West this time would not leave Ukraine completely stranded.
The official Kremlin constantly claims that Russia is not only at war with Ukraine but with the “collective West.” This is not just another cheap propaganda narrative with which Putin’s dictatorial clique tries to justify the shameful failure of the three-day “special military operation,” which has turned into a grueling and brutal war against Ukraine. It is a war in which the Russian military machine – a global superpower (!?) – has been drawing the short straw since the very beginning when Ukraine’s defense was manned by a rag-tag army and inexperienced volunteers.
The narrative of a “war against the collective West” is an open admission and, at the same time, a threat of military aggression against (part of) European states. Russian propagandists regularly call for attacks on the capitals of the largest states in Europe – London, Berlin, Paris, and others. Even the top of the Russian state has more than once threatened the West, including with nuclear weapons. Russian war rhetoric and specific threats against Poland, the Baltic states, Scandinavia, and other European countries are intensifying.
On Russia’s list of “enemy” states are 47 countries and territories, according to a report by the Russian TASS on September 20, 2024.
The European Union is on Russia’s list of “enemy states,” with the exception of Hungary and Slovakia, where pro-Russian autocratic political structures are in power. Among the NATO members not on the list is Turkey. Also on the “enemy states” list are all the countries of the Balkan Peninsula, except for Serbia, which is entirely expected.
The slumber of the political elites: Europe is a battlefield of continuous and complex operations and hybrid tactics
It is an undeniable fact that Europe is a battlefield of continuous and complex operations and hybrid tactics carried out by the enemies of democracy – for much longer than the political elites were willing to admit.
“Neutrals” and Chomsky’s supporters would say that Russia’s aggressive policy is a response to Western “imperialism and military interventionism” and the like, but that is, at the very least, a form of relativization and whataboutism. Meanwhile – while Europe is engaged in democratic debate, and even more so with itself – Russia and its open and covert (hidden) partners and agile proxy players are resolutely conducting their propaganda, intelligence, subversive, economic, and hybrid operations.
The time for diplomatic clichés is (almost) over. That’s how things stand, and if there’s any room for discussion, it should start from that boiling point.
In the context of Europe’s political slumber, it must once again be emphasized how long-lasting and insidious Russian hybrid operations are. Russian hybrid aggression on European soil took place and is still taking place through well-developed networks that skillfully and efficiently exploit democratic standards and (yes!) European public funds – for their own benefit. For decades, they have embedded themselves in democratic systems and changed people’s behavior, often using public money from taxpayers in the democratic societies of the West. But that was never enough for the Kremlin.
Russia is making concrete preparations for war with Europe and NATO: Military conflict by 2029 at the latest
It has long been clear that Russia is conducting accelerated operations to restructure and increase its military potential for a military conflict with NATO. Despite sanctions from the EU, the US, and other Western countries, the Russian economy, after an initial shock, managed to sustain itself and even record growth. This is happening, among other reasons, due to restructuring into a war economy, enabling it to maintain the bloody violence against Ukraine and – in the future – to wage wars against other European countries.
Right after the first military aggression against Ukraine in 2014, NATO structures sounded the alarm. But it wasn’t enough, as political elites in the EU continued to sway in the idyllic embrace of Putin. This includes deep corruption, propaganda, and subversive activities by the Kremlin deeply embedded in Europe’s political, social, and even defense structures.
However, NATO, which until 2014 was a sleepy alliance, began to consolidate its ranks, though still facing political structures hindering the pace of strengthening defense capacities. Now, in the third year of the full-scale Russian aggression against Ukraine, the situation has changed significantly.
Germany’s Defense Minister, Boris Pistorius, openly stated during a Bundestag session for parliamentary questions in May (2024) that the Bundeswehr (German Armed Forces) has an obligation to prepare for war by 2029.
The Baltic states, which know well what Russian aggression and occupation mean, began ramping up defense preparations the moment the first aggression against Ukraine began in 2014.
Estonia is one of those countries. The small country, with just 1.3 million residents, which gained its independence in 1991, has always considered its former occupier an “existential threat.” Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, in an interview with The Times on January 15, estimated that Europe and NATO have “three to five years” to prepare for war with Russia.
The Baltic states are examples of defiance and love for freedom, as well as honesty and solidarity. Although one of NATO’s smallest members, Estonia leads in terms of the percentage of GDP allocated for military aid to Ukraine. Estonia’s military aid to Ukraine has reached 3.6% of GDP. By this criterion, Denmark is the second most generous donor, with 2.4%. For comparison, US aid to Ukraine amounts to 0.32% of GDP, according to research by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Denmark.
Estonia’s generosity has historical roots. Only in the 20th century, the Soviet Union attacked Estonia twice, and Estonia won its freedom from Moscow in 1991. Estonia is not preparing for an “if” scenario but rather a “when” scenario regarding a Russian attack. Given its small size, it is likely that this country could be one of the first victims of the Kremlin in case of a new war on European soil.
This is why the three Baltic states, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, signed an agreement at the beginning of 2024 to create a joint Baltic defense line against the increasingly likely Russian attacks. In early October, Lithuania deployed mines and anti-tank barriers – metal “hedgehogs” and concrete “dragon’s teeth” – on the bridges connecting it with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, while the plan for deploying counter-mobility equipment throughout the country and at the approaches to the three airports is already being implemented. These measures are just the beginning of preparations to defend against Russian aggression. According to Estonian intelligence, the Russian army is planning to station 40,000 soldiers near the border with the Baltic states.
Critical points: The authoritarian regimes of Hungary and Slovakia and their destabilizing influence
On the other hand, countries like Orban’s Hungary and Slovakia, which came under the leadership of the far-right Robert Fico in 2023, pose a threat to Europe’s and NATO’s defense structures. Especially considering that Orban’s Hungary is practically a satellite of the Kremlin regime, NATO’s command’s fears are more than legitimate. This particularly concerns the suspicion that, in the event of military conflict, Hungary would not fulfill its obligations under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty for collective defense, according to an analysis by the Robert Lansing Institute. Discussions are increasingly open as to whether Hungary deserves to be part of Euro-Atlantic structures at all.
This situation becomes even more complex because Hungary exerts strong influence in the Western Balkans region. On the Moscow-Budapest axis, besides Bratislava with Fico, Belgrade has long been aligned, and recently, after the change in power following the elections in May, official Skopje has also begun to gravitate towards this axis. Budapest also serves as a channel for Chinese influence, though for now, this is limited to increased economic engagement (with large loans) and softer propaganda and political influence.
Parallel to military preparations, in some NATO member states, such as the Baltic states, Finland, Moldova, and several others, public awareness of the Russian threat has long existed. However, in most European countries, this issue is reluctantly brought to the broader public, partly due to the fear of causing panic. Particularly vulnerable in this context are countries in the Western Balkans, where Russian influence operations are deeply embedded in all public, political, and economic spheres.
The realization of these scenarios largely depends on the extent to which the Peace Formula and the Victory Plan, offered by the Ukrainian president to the Western allies and the world, are implemented. The public in Western European countries and beyond is not sufficiently aware – or perhaps does not want to be aware – of the destructive potential of the Kremlin, which, despite suffering shameful defeats on the fronts in Ukraine, still possesses significant reserves of missiles and other weapons, as well as a massive number of troops serving as cannon fodder. Additionally, we must consider the countries openly supporting Russia’s military aggression with weapons, ammunition, and technology, such as Iran and North Korea, to some extent China, and other states as well.
Furthermore, Russia’s military aggression in other European countries will not be an isolated operation. The Western Balkans remain an explosive region that could easily be engulfed in a security crisis. If a new military hotspot opens in Europe, various “unpaid debts” will inevitably surface. Bosnia and Herzegovina will face territorial redefinition, which will not be resolved without bloodshed, and a “settling of accounts” between Serbia and Kosovo is more than possible. And it won’t stop there.
Perspectives: Recognizing the threat isn’t enough – active resistance to aggression is imperative
Europe is facing growing uncertainty. While democratic public opinion in EU countries is preoccupied with debates, the Kremlin and its allies and proxy actors within the EU and beyond continue with hybrid operations aimed at destabilization. The question is no longer whether Europe will face direct conflict with Russia, but when. Merely acknowledging the existence and proximity of the threat is not enough. Active resistance to aggression is imperative. This includes, among other things, a decisive and accelerated process of strengthening democratic resilience, fostering intensive and sincere international cooperation, and committing to the truth. Global leaders, institutions, and citizens have a historic responsibility to reject complacency and reinforce democratic values, uphold human rights, and cultivate and strengthen justice, fairness, and the rule of law, which are the foundations of a stable, secure, and peaceful society. The question is no longer whether the democratic world will succeed in this effort, but rather if it fails – the world as we know it will disappear.
Indeed, the choices made by political, intellectual, and civic leaders today will shape not only our immediate future but also the world our children will inherit. If democratic forces worldwide fail to act promptly, decisively, and with dedication, the consequences will be dire. Soon, the entire world will descend into darkness, where forces of repression, aided by disinformation and propaganda, will control people’s thoughts and behavior. Democracy will become a thing of the past.
An even more difficult question is whether the democratic world is prepared for a direct confrontation with Russia. It is essential to understand that defense against Russian aggression, whether hybrid or military, lies in unity, determination, and a revived fight to defend democracy and human dignity from the authoritarian wave sweeping across the continent. The time for complacency and the illusion of the West’s invulnerability has long passed. If the West does not mobilize all capacities to defend democracy while simultaneously raising its readiness for deterrence and defense against a direct military conflict with the Kremlin, it may soon discover that the war is lost before it even begins.
The price of erosion will be paid by future generations. They are at risk of inheriting a world where freedom is not only no longer guaranteed but becomes a distant memory.
This is an opinion article. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author. All rights reserved.
