By Xhabir Deralla
Summary
- Serbia, as a dominant force in the Balkans, continues to reject dealing with the past, pursues hegemonism, and aligns itself with Russia’s interests. These factors fuel regional tensions, obstruct democratic progress, and reinforce Moscow’s broader strategy of destabilization.
- Another alarming trend is Serbia’s rapid military buildup. It remains the most heavily armed country in the Balkans, importing weapons from Russia, China, Israel, and NATO states while maintaining an ambiguous stance on EU integration. This militarization, combined with nationalism, hegemonism, and Russian alignment, raises serious concerns about future conflicts.
- The region cannot counter destabilizing actions through isolated national policies; a strong, unified response is essential. Serbia and other Balkan countries must acknowledge past crimes, end the glorification of war criminals, and take meaningful steps toward reconciliation.
- Independent media, civil society, and pro-democratic forces across the Balkans require substantial support to counter nationalist and pro-Kremlin propaganda. Serbia’s European integration must be conditioned on real democratic reforms, an end to regional interference, and demilitarization.
- Progressive forces in the Balkans must coordinate their efforts to resist authoritarian expansionism and nationalist agendas.
- Without decisive action, Serbia will remain a key instrument in Russia’s hybrid warfare strategies, deepening instability in the Balkans. The West cannot afford to underestimate the consequences of these dangerous power games.
Serbia can (and should) be observed in three contexts: dealing with the past, hegemonism, and alignment with Russian interests and military strategies for the Balkans. These contexts are interdependent and aligned, and of course, they are far more complex than can be revealed in a short analysis. However, it is important that they are shared even in this, let’s call it, telegraphic format, so they may serve as a reminder and an introduction to more extensive research and analyses.
A history of (not) dealing with the past
Serbia is a state (and society) that has never managed to face its own past, including the fact that at the end of the 20th century, its forces waged expansionist wars against its former fellow citizens, bombed entire cities indiscriminately, established concentration camps where civilians were tortured, raped, and murdered, committed countless war crimes, and carried out genocide in Srebrenica.
All of this has been documented and confirmed by international institutions, media, researchers, and – courts. A country that cannot and does not want to confront its past will never live in peace with itself or with others. This statement, as grim as it is, is just as true, and it has been proven throughout history and is being proven even today.
Hegemonism and systemic repression
Furthermore, it must be established as a fact that Serbia has never abandoned its own hegemonism in the Balkans. This has been evident throughout the 20th century (without delving further into the past). Serbian political, military, and religious leaders, supported by intellectual elites, have clearly demonstrated their desire for Serbia to dominate the Balkans at any cost – starting from cultural and religious domination, displacement and colonization, and culminating in systemic repression.
If anyone is under the illusion that this was not the case even in Communist Yugoslavia, one only needs to mention Aleksandar Ranković and the “voluntary exchange” of people in the 1950s, when tens of thousands of Turks, Albanians, and other “undesirables” were forced to seek a new home – in Turkey.
There is no need for a separate elaboration on Serbian hegemonism following the dissolution of Yugoslavia, given the wars and crimes of the 1990s. At the beginning of the 21st century, it is enough to mention the role and actions of hybrid operations conducted by well-known figures and structures in Republika Srpska, Montenegro, and the northern part of the Republic of Kosovo.
Russian propaganda in Serbian language
Beyond the well-documented wars of the 1990s, contemporary Serbian influence in the Balkans is being carried out by the Belgrade regime through a (not always) sophisticated combination of “soft” and “hard” power. The media controlled by Aleksandar Vučić’s regime, both in Serbia and the region, serve as strategic instruments of propaganda – both Serbian and Russian.
There is no need to look far; it is enough to point out that RT (Russia Today / RT), a channel of Russian war propaganda banned by most Western democracies following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has its own studio in Belgrade (!) broadcasting in Serbian (RT Balkan). Serbian media under regime control serve as dominant channels for authoritarian, nationalist, and pro-Russian propaganda—not only in Serbia but also in Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, and Kosovo, and to some extent, even beyond.
Soft power: Serbian-Russian-Chinese economic influence
There is also “soft power,” expressed through economic ties, such as Serbian investments in telecommunications and other sectors, which are combined with Chinese and Russian capital. This further strengthens Serbian-Russian-Chinese influence over neighboring countries, bringing direct benefits to the regime in Belgrade. At the same time, it sustains Moscow’s centuries-old interest in securing access to the Adriatic—and thereby to the Mediterranean—as highlighted in multiple instances, among others, by Branimir Anzulović in Heavenly Serbia: From Myth to Genocide (Hurst & Co., 1999). For contemporary events and processes related to Russian influence in the Balkans and Serbia’s role in this context, James McBride provides an analysis in Russia’s Influence in the Balkans.
Let’s return to the present. In any case, intelligence and security coordination with Vladimir Putin’s regime remains a constant threat, as it makes Serbia an open channel for implementing Moscow’s strategic interests in the region. For both Russia and Serbia, it is sufficient to have unresolved issues and ongoing tensions between neighbors and within states. Ethnic, religious, political, and cultural differences are skillfully exploited to polarize societies, sow fear and distrust, and create conditions for conflict. In short, the maintenance of insecurity through the perpetual non-resolution of disputes. This is also emphasized by renowned journalist and analyst Veton Surroi in his interview The Western Balkans Are Still in the Zone of Unfinished Conflicts.
A Different Vision for Serbia
However, despite Serbian hegemonism and alignment with Russia being dominant trends in Serbia for decades, it is crucial to highlight that not the entire Serbian society follows this path. Journalists, activists, and opposition politicians have for years challenged nationalist narratives and Serbia’s increasing closeness to Russia – often at a high cost to their careers and personal safety. The efforts of independent media, such as Danas, N1, Nova, and others, are well known.
Furthermore, civil society organizations and movements, as well as students who have mobilized large parts of Serbia in recent days, serve as clear evidence that the country has progressive forces opposing the authoritarian regime in Belgrade. Despite the government’s tremendous efforts – along with secret services and obedient propaganda media – to marginalize protests by any means necessary, civic demonstrations in Serbia prove that an alternative vision for the country exists.
It should also be noted that a key catalyst for the widespread civic unrest in Serbia has been the demand for accountability following the collapse of part of the Novi Sad railway station in November 2024. Whether and how this will lead to a more progressive and democratic Serbia remains an open question.
North Macedonia: Tender care for what comes as Serbian hegemony
When it comes to North Macedonia, a significant portion of the country’s political and intellectual elites embrace and carefully nurture Serbian hegemony with dedicated tenderness. One only needs to look at the recent celebration of Saint Sava in Skopje to see that this is hardly an exceptional precedent.
Of course, Macedonian politics and society have a far more complex dynamic. Despite the undeniable dominance of Serbian politics and culture (including kitsch), the country’s progressive political and intellectual circles contribute a different quality – modern and cosmopolitan, as befits it.
Who benefits from such a Serbia and such Balkans?
Who benefits from such a Serbia and such Balkans? The answer is clear: the Kremlin. Russian policy pursues long-term strategic operations aimed at the continuous destabilization of the region. Aggressive propaganda and intelligence operations, accompanied by evergreen narratives about “defending against the Albanian invasion,” go hand in hand with the promotion and installation of the so-called “Serbian World.” These operations—along with the paternalization and appropriation of what can likely be called North Macedonia’s national, cultural, and religious identity—are entirely aligned with the propaganda concept of the “Russian World.”
Russian-Serbian hybrid operations against Macedonia’s integration processes
The operations of Serbian and Russian security structures periodically surface within Macedonian political and social processes. They were particularly visible during:
- The attempted coup in 2017,
- The 2018 referendum on the Prespa Agreement,
- The obstruction of NATO accession in 2019,
- The blockade of the European negotiation framework in 2022 (the French proposal), which continues to this day.
These are just some of the more visible operations.
Serbian security and intelligence services work in full coordination with their Russian counterparts, particularly in tracking, obstructing, and extraditing Russian political dissidents. These operations are primarily carried out on Serbian soil but extend across all Balkan countries.
Strengthening ties with the Kremlin and Serbia’s military build-up
Finally, Serbia’s close ties with the Kremlin and its growing military capabilities speak volumes about the nature of its policies. Serbia has become a regional military powerhouse, boasting its own arms industry while acquiring weaponry from all possible sources—Russia, China, Israel, and even NATO member states.
It is not easy to move forward with such a neighbor—especially when there is neither sufficient knowledge nor political will to do so. And the other neighbors, both historically and in the present, have not exactly demonstrated their best qualities either.
Perspectives and solutions: Without a proactive and decisive response, Serbia will remain a tool of the Russian strategy
Now that the main avenues of Serbia’s destabilizing role in the region have been illuminated—along with key facts from both the present and the not-so-distant past – it is time to reflect on the way forward.
Cooperation among progressive and pro-democratic forces across the Balkans is crucial. The fight against Serbian and Russian influence, as well as their hybrid propaganda and security-military operations, cannot be waged at the level of individual states in the region. Civil society and independent media are currently in deep crisis. The capacity of genuinely committed civil society organizations and independent media has been seriously diminished – not only due to insufficient and inadequate support from Western donors but also because of the relentless attacks they endure from the propaganda operations of authoritarian power centers in the Balkans and Moscow.
Western democracies, especially in the wake of the dramatic shift in Washington, must support civil society organizations that promote democratic values, as well as media outlets that sincerely and diligently uphold principles of professionalism and ethics in their work while fighting disinformation, nationalist rhetoric, and Russian war propaganda. If not for the well-being, security, and stability of the Balkans, then at least for the protection of their own interests, stability, and security. It hardly needs explaining why this is vital in today’s globally interconnected world, where democracy can be threatened even by small players – such as those in the Balkans – within the broader geopolitical struggle.
Without a proactive and decisive response, Serbia will remain a tool of Russian strategy, leading to further deepening instability in the region.
Serbia’s role necessitates a serious reassessment of regional policies to confront Belgrade’s hegemonism. Equally important is a more coordinated approach from the EU and NATO. The West has an obligation – if it truly cares about stability and peace in the region, as well as its own democratic systems – to take a firmer stance. What Brussels, Washington, and Belgrade conveniently refer to as “Serbia’s European path” must come with conditions for genuine democratization and, even more so, with a resolute demand to end nationalist expansionism, hegemonism, and militarization.
Read also:
A Test of Humanity’s Strength: Conflicts, genocidal wars, and authoritarianism – can the world overcome the darkness? [LINK]
UNSEEN RISE OF AUTHORITARIANISM: The question is no longer whether we can afford to fight for democracy and human rights, but whether we can afford not to [LINK]
