By Marjan Zabrchanec
This region is currently enveloped in enormous uncertainty, presenting both risks and opportunities for a transformative shift. We have to be aware about the evident disagreements of the new US authorities to some of the NATO policies and also about the shutdown of the USAID programs. These developments suggest a decrease of the US influence in the Balkans. As the US distances itself from the region, an open space emerges, one that can be filled by the EU, or by Russia, Turkey, or China.
The EU’s declarative determination to bring our region closer or fully integrate it, must now be demonstrated in a tangible action. If EU fails to bring the region closer, it risks creating an island of non-Union states or territories, to be controlled by Russia or Turkey easily, right in the heart of the EU.
In essence, this situation should force the EU to clearly define its borders.
A significant challenge we face here in Skopje is the ongoing dispute between North Macedonia and Bulgaria. This issue appeared to have been resolved with the adoption of the so-called French proposal, previously accepted by parliaments in both countries.
However, today, that agreement is under threat. The government led by the far-right VMRO-DPMNE in Skopje is refusing to implement the agreed constitutional amendments that would recognize the Bulgarian ethnic community as one of the dozen of communities listed in the Macedonian Constitution.
Having in mind the close ties of the ruling VMRO-DPMNE to Orbán and having in mind North Macedonia’s hesitance to support the European resolution on Ukraine at the UN, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the populistic NO to including the Bulgarians in the Constitution is, in reality, a dangerous NO to the country’s further integration into the EU.
This is not merely a bilateral issue; it is deeply intertwined with regional and geopolitical relations. Along with the developments in Serbia, the protest movement and the radicalized behavior of the government there, the unsolved issues between Belgrade and Prishtina, and the situation around Dodik in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Republika Srpska, this is escalating into a serious regional security problem. We are on the edge again.
The EU messaging and behavior vis-à-vis public perception
While North Macedonia may not be the leader in the region in public support for the European integration, we still hold a significant majority, with around 65% of our citizens supporting the EU path. Just to be notices, in 2018, at the time of the settlement of the dispute with Greece – the Prespa Agreement – it reached 75%. However, the current support of 65% is significant and stable (especially if we consider that during the name change the country was promised the unconditional start of negotiations with the EU in a package with NATO membership, and instead of opening of negotiations we first got the French NO, and then the Bulgarian NO).
This stable support for the EU among the Macedonian citizens is a testament to the meaningful European narrative that has been both consistent and effective over the past decade.
The narrative, embraced by the Union itself but also by the Government here from 2017 till 2024 was built around three key political and communications pillars:
- Economic benefits gained through the EU funds and through regional cooperation by implementation of the European economic freedoms;
- Good neighborly relations, reconciliation, resolution of all disputes and border protection
- Standards, rule of law, anti-corruption, service-oriented institutions
These values and promises have resonated with the huge majority of Macedonian citizens, providing hope and direction for our future. It was a unique offer that no one else has given. It is still an opportunity that no one else gives.
Today, we must acknowledge the challenges in front of us. The evident withdrawal of the US influence from the Balkans suggests that our last opportunity for the EU integration may be nearing.
Meanwhile, Russian interests are becoming more pronounced in our region. This shift in the global dynamics is a reminder of the importance of maintaining our focus on European integration.
Unfortunately, the EU’s efforts to communicate its values and opportunities have not always been matched by concrete delivery. This inconsistency has led to a loss of credibility among the general public – so, EU started to lose its credibility here, but the loss has also spread to all those political parties, groups and organizations that publicly advocate for European integration.
The Bulgarian blockades of our integration, despite being a neighboring country and an EU member state, directly undermine the Union’s credibility. The EU messages are commendable, but the implementation of policies lags behind, and therefore, when you start to lose your credibility, bilateral disputes and nationalism start to dominate public perceptions.
Moreover, we must consider that the current ruling far-right party in North Macedonia may exploit the EU’s mistakes to facilitate cooperation with other centers of power interested in our region. But, at the same time, the government here is aware of the 65% support for the EU and therefore they cannot afford to spread anti-European narrative.
This limbo atmosphere in which we find our region, represents a huge risk for the public perception of the EU. If this situation persists, I anticipate a new wave of declining support for the EU among the citizens.
In conclusion, while North Macedonia faces significant challenges in its pursuit of European integration, the support of our citizens for the EU path remains a window of opportunity. It is crucial for us to continue advocating for the values and promises that have united us, and to work towards a future where these ideals are realized.
Europe must deliver what has already promised and even more – EU has to define new deliverables in order to renew the public narrative and the public support in North Macedonia and in the region.
There is a momentum of opportunity. The Ukraine crisis and the US shift can be a huge opportunity for Europe to rebuild its unity with an upgraded narrative, 80 years after the idea for the European unity was established in practice.
Is it real for North Macedonia to move to EU’s enlargement until 2029?
Once again, we come to the question of whether each of the stakeholders responsible for the European future will deliver on its promises – we are speaking about the obligations of the candidate countries to the Union, but also the obligations of the Union to the citizens of the region.
In the case of North Macedonia, it currently seems impossible to close the negotiations by 2029, given that we have not opened a single chapter and that we will not open one if the government does not have the political will to change the Constitution.
This can only be achieved through a radical change in the discourse that the EU adopts towards North Macedonia and the region in general. It is not enough to simply set deadlines and not take any action towards the goals set.
What is happening with the Growth Plan? Why are the payments of financial tranches late? Why there is no progress on the projects of regional cooperation? Why are there no new initiatives for establishing a common single market in the Western Balkans, why are the initiatives of the Berlin Process and the Open Balkan disappearing?
However, in North Macedonia, there is still good ground for completing the European story.
The region, and therefore North Macedonia, must be given an offer that cannot be refused.
It has to be an offer that makes a difference.
Whether it will be a major financial support for capital projects, whether it will be a new investment in the establishment of the Western Balkans as an open economic zone, and a common single market, or perhaps an entry of our countries into the Schengen system at some level – time is ticking, a decisions and actions are needed – the EU must deliver this time in order to counter the anti-European motives and actions.
The EU is playing on its own field here, in front of its own audience – it would be truly regrettable and with major consequences not to perform this time or to surrender the game.
The Author, Marjan Zabrchanec is communications specialist, consultant, activist and former communications director and national coordinator at the Government of North Macedonia.
