An economist by formation, a renowned businessperson and a philanthropist, the former Prime Minister of North Macedonia, Mr. Zoran Zaev spoke at the Sarajevo Business Forum’s first panel Post-COVID economic recovery – opportunities for turnaround?, Wednesday, May 11.
“I believe that the post-Covid response, together with the consequences of the Russian aggression on Ukraine, is the most important global topic that requires serious reflection and serious answers to help the economies and the citizens.
It is no coincidence that I mentioned the current war, or more precisely the military aggression against Ukraine. When we speak about recovery after Covid, today we have to also talk about the economic consequences of the events in Ukraine.
When we were on the verge of recovery from KOVID-19, the aggression on Ukraine happened to all of us. And now we have to analyze those two crises together, as consecutive. Those two crises affect the same stakeholders. They both affect our countries, our peoples, all of us”, Mr. Zaev said at the beginning of his speech.
According to Mr. Zaev, the projections for economic growth of the global and European economy have been reduced. He also emphasized that the economies of the Western Balkans now face an unusually uncertain outlook. The baseline projection for GDP growth in 2022 in the Western Balkans is now 3.1 percent, a downward revision by almost one percentage point.
“The world, Europe, the region – we all no longer face only the reduced productivity of the companies or reduced sales due to the reduced purchasing power of citizens. We no longer face only the challenge of preserving jobs or the challenge of digital transformation of the businesses.
Today the challenges are much bigger. The challenges are food shortages, global reorganization of energy supply, price shocks and even poverty.
The challenges are enormous. And therefore, I fully confirm the value of such discussions and forums looking for thoughtful, united, regional and global solutions”, emphasized Zaev.
The solution, according to Mr. Zaev, is in cooperation and partnerships.
“We have to work together to succeed. The key is in partnerships, in alliances. When we all face of risks of global unstability, we must unite and create platforms, cooperation and partnerships that stream regional peace, stability and predictability.
Therefore, I put the regional cooperation in the first place”, Zaev said.
He further explains that the region is capable of filling various shortages through the regional cooperation.
“We can fill in the shortages of skills, work force, production facilities, and even food, in any of our countries, by helping each other, by partnering with our neighbors which means with regional cooperation”, Zaev explains.
Key steps in this process is creation of regional single market, and expressed his hopes that more countries will join the regional cooperation model of the Open Balkan.
“That is why I strongly support the process of creating a single market in the Western Balkans and I expect that more and more countries will decide to participate in removing the obstacles to the free flow of people, services, goods and products in our region.
It is time to ‘brand and promote’ the region as a unique investment potential”, Mr. Zaev called.
“A bigger game” is needed, according to Mr. Zaev, in order to achieve success.
“In order to bring in the big players, we also need to play a bigger game. The Western Balkans has huge potential for creating energy from renewable energy sources. We have a lot of sun, wind and water. That means that we can should be more attractive when it is about investing in large strategic and infrastructure projects, which can be done by large and global investors.
Our countries can become more competitive for such projects only if we unite and if we act as a region. That is how the disadvantages will disappear, the benefits will grow”, Mr. Zaev said.
As a positive example, Mr. Zaev pointed out at the Alexandroupoli project, which is “a typical example of how to play regionally when it comes to global energy policy.”
“Namely, a few days ago in Alexandropoli, Greece, the construction of the Liquefied Gas Terminal started, a project for long-term energy independence and for a stable and continuous supply of liquefied gas in an extremely critical time”, Mr. Zaev said.
He also stressed that the situation in Ukraine demands more determination in connecting the region. According to Mr. Zaev, there is no time, having in mind that the key steps in this process are rather in a midterm timeframe, but “the crisis is knocking on the door every day”.
“I think we need to be even braver and more determined when it comes to regional connectivity. The situation in Ukraine demands that necessity and increases the potential of the regional cooperation in the Western Balkans.
These are key steps that will work on midterm level. But the crisis is knocking on the door every day”, he said.
The former Macedonian Prime Minister Zaev also made a public appeal that the region’s governments “must continue providing an increased direct support to the citizens”.
“Therefore, our countries must continue providing an increased direct support to the citizens. Especially to the most vulnerable and the poorest. Recovery requires maintaining the purchasing power of the households, and thus amortization of price shocks. Therefore, I appeal to the governments – don’t cut the support to the citizens – on the contrary, invest in them – in their purchasing power and in the development of the human capital.
The minimum wage must be increased constantly, social care support as well, pensions as well”, Mr. Zaev appealed.
He also appealed to dialogue between states, governments, businesses, trade unions and oppositions, which will lead to solutions.
“States, governments, businesses, trade unions and oppositions need to be in constant dialogue and to create solutions. In times of crisis, strikes and blockades are not the solution. Dialogue is the solution. Competitiveness with ideas, search for stability and predictability. These are the steps that will lead us to solutions, not radical moves, not blockades, not exclusivity and not violence”, Mr. Zaev recommends.
He also spoke of the necessity of assisting the business sector in these tumultuous times.
“Assistance should also be provided up for the businesses. Interest-free and low-interest loans and development grants – to constantly and intensively create opportunities for companies to find their own opportunities”, Mr. Zaev recommended.
A vibrant, active, resilient and sustainable economies are achievable through these measures, Mr. Zaev believes.
“These measures, together with the strong commitment of the institutions for timely and fully implementation of the capital investments, lead to vibrant, active, resilient and sustainable economies.
I am convinced that the economies of the Western Balkans will be stronger and more dynamic if they cooperate, if they unite and if they intent to grow into a single, one, open economy in the Western Balkans as soon as possible.
It is a guarantee that will be competitive at the global market, a guarantee of investments, of jobs, of consumer power and, finally, a guarantee of a better life for our citizens”, Mr. Zaev concludes.
International Business and Investment Conference – Sarajevo Business Forum (SBF) is an annual event, organized since 2010. The conference has been positioned as one of the most important business and investment events for Southeastern Europe.
