By Xhabir Deralla
The recent electoral landscape in North Macedonia reveals three primary factors that significantly influenced the outcomes of the first round of the Presidential Elections held on April 24, 2024. These key factors are nationalism, Russian influence, and the political inertia and indecisiveness of SDSM—the party leading the ruling coalition since June 2017. This year’s electoral process was marked by a vehemently anti-democratic and nationalist campaign that distorted the major achievements of the ruling coalition’s policies, such as the Prespa Agreement, NATO membership, fostering good neighborly relations, initiation of EU accession negotiations, and more, portraying them as “defeats,” “capitulation,” and “betrayal.”
It is noteworthy that much of the challenges faced by democracy in North Macedonia can also be observed in developed democracies across Europe and the world. The rise of nationalist populism, racism, and ultraradical (and fascist) ideologies, alongside the hesitation, opportunism, and erosion of democratic values among progressive forces, mirrors similar trends fueled by well-organized anti-democratic hybrid operations orchestrated by the Kremlin, leading to societal polarization and crises.
Additionally, factors such as the apathy of undecided voters, inherent fragmentation of society’s democratic fabric, and the activities of anti-democratic and corrupt installations within key institutions further compound the challenges within the electoral landscape and broader social and political processes.
The failure of the incumbent president of North Macedonia can be analyzed through this prism, juxtaposed against the success of populist and nationalist candidates in the first round of the presidential elections held on April 24.
Voters—whether they participated in the election or abstained—faced a decisive choice between two competing ideologies: one characterized by nationalism, anti-democracy, and anti-Western sentiments, and the other promoting a pro-European and democratic outlook. However, the latter has been under relentless attack for years, subjected to extensive operations involving media, civil society organizations, intellectuals, academia, businesses, religious communities, criminals, and Russian intelligence operatives.
Simultaneously, the democratic and progressive segment of society encountered disappointment due to the perceived impunity of figures from Gruevski’s authoritarian regime and a lack of commitment to building a genuinely modern, European, multicultural society resilient against nationalist hysteria, religious fanaticism, and Russian interference jeopardizing hard-earned democratic gains.
The Role of Nationalism in Shaping Election Results
Nationalism consistently plays a key role in shaping election outcomes. It serves as the ideological and programmatic cornerstone for a multitude of political parties, ranging from major players like VMRO-DPMNE to smaller extremist groups like Desna (Right), Edinstvena Makedonija (United Macedonia), or Levica (Left). These parties systematically cultivate nationalist sentiments within society, emphasizing their “concern” for the protection of national, linguistic, and cultural identities.
However, their nationalist perspective on “nation” and “national” is narrow and exclusive, identifying these concepts solely with the dominant ethnic community. This approach dismisses the principles of civil society and multiculturalism, except when ethnic communities are expected to conform and remain subordinate in societal hierarchies – positioned in the second or third row.
The narrative of the “tyranny of the minority,” suggesting that minorities exploit and rule over the majority at their expense, is highly problematic. This concept echoes discriminatory ideologies historically used to justify persecution, including those employed by Nazi Germany against Jewish people. Such narratives fuel prejudice, hatred, and social polarization, posing significant threats to the country’s stability.
Similarly, the concept of ‘Macedonian Macedonia,’ although seemingly more radical, reflects the essence of the ‘tyranny of the minority’ narrative. Both concepts oversimplify societal realities by promoting ethnic and religious ‘purity’ as the sole basis for organizing society and the state, dismissing alternative viewpoints as treacherous.
These exclusive viewpoints stifle debate and diversity of opinion, denying space for constructive dialogue and mutual understanding. Embracing a more inclusive and pluralistic approach is essential for fostering a harmonious and civil society where human rights, freedoms, and identities of all communities are respected.
The Impact of Russian Hybrid Tactics on Electoral Processes
Propaganda and disinformation campaigns in electoral contexts (and beyond) represent critical components of Russia’s hybrid warfare against democratic nations. Within the broader framework of hybrid warfare, which employs unconventional tactics, influencing elections through disinformation and propaganda serves as a potent weapon for sowing discord, undermining democratic processes, and weakening societal resilience, thereby endangering national security.
This influence manifests through various means, including disinformation campaigns and strategic alliances with specific political parties and civil society organizations, posing significant threats to electoral integrity and democratic stability within a country. North Macedonia has been a target of such operations for years.
Russia’s malicious disinformation and media manipulation campaigns target democratic countries to advance the strategic goals of Putin’s authoritarian and aggressive regime. Exploiting societal vulnerabilities and policy shortcomings, these campaigns amplify dissatisfaction and deepen distrust towards institutions. Potential solutions to societal challenges are often discredited, labeled as corrupt or treasonous, while progressive intellectuals and journalists are subjected to ferocious and life-threatening public attacks and labeled as foreign mercenaries or traitors.
Countries in the Western Balkans, situated outside the economic, political, and security umbrella of the EU, are particularly vulnerable. While NATO membership offers security guarantees against direct attacks on territorial sovereignty, these vulnerable democracies face numerous internal challenges.
Russian influence played a significant role in the 2016 US presidential election, demonstrating vulnerabilities within even the most sophisticated democratic systems. The implications for smaller European and Balkan countries are even more significant; metaphorically, if Russia could disrupt the democratic process in the United States, a small section of kids can easily threaten the democratic fabric of Balkan nations.
The Impact of Political Apathy on Progressive Candidates in Elections
The past years under SDSM-led coalition rule were marked by unprecedented global crises (e.g., COVID-19 pandemic, economic and energy crises, Russian aggression against Ukraine, Middle East conflicts) and regional political-security turbulence. Despite facing numerous challenges that could have justified their actions, the coalition failed to fully demonstrate the political will needed to implement necessary social reforms and strengthen the country’s democratic course following 11 years of state capture and democratic erosion by the authoritarian, kleptocratic VMRO-DPMNE regime.
The disappointing election results for the incumbent President Pendarovski reflect voter disillusionment with the coalition’s perceived lack of determination to fulfill promises stemming from civil resistance and the Colorful Revolution. This disillusionment paved the way for populist, anti-Western, and nationalist alternatives.
The emergence of renegade political entities who went rogue mirrors the ruling parties’ failure to implement transformative reforms and uphold democratic values within their ranks. Flirting with populism, compromising with nationalist structures, and indecisiveness in promoting social cohesion—especially in inter-ethnic relations—facilitated the unhindered rise of anti-democratic tendencies, impeding democratic, reformative, and integration processes.
The confluence of these factors has led to an electoral landscape dominated by polarizing nationalist and anti-Western narratives. Looking forward, these circumstances forecast a potential escalation of crises, stagnation in Euro-Atlantic integration processes, and destabilization within the country.
First published in CIVILMEDIA.MK on April 27, 2024 in Macedonian
