Sofia’s current logic towards Skopje is the oldest geopolitical framework for resolving the numerous Balkan historical disputes (especially when it comes to Macedonia): you do nothing to improve relations when you do not have to, and when it seems you have to, you buy time to delay acute pressure. It does not matter that all this can be to the benefit of your own harm, if the harm to the other is greater than yours. In this case, by definition, the damage to Macedonia will be much greater than to the Bulgarians.
If, at least for a moment, we abstract from the politicized folklore of daily politics in both Skopje and Sofia and the noise that that folklore causes on social networks and in the media in both countries – including all the few benevolent voices calling for reason in Bulgarian- Macedonian relations – the analysis of the reasons for the second Bulgarian veto at the last European summit does not seem illogical. If viewed from the Bulgarian side.
Namely, in order not to go into the well-known history of the dispute in the last year or two (and, even less in the last 100+ years), suffice it to say that, from an international point of view, to the surprise of our Euro-American partners, Bulgaria reached for the “desperate measure” of vetoing (it is, in principle, a sign of despair), first “in the announcement”, and now definitely, in blocking the Macedonian (and Albanian) European perspective, in an attempt to protect them their “national interests” as they define themselves. They have met with general and even unpleasant condemnation and pressure from, for now, all their (and ours) international partners.
NEW PHASE
Sofia passed that stage and – survived. The peak of the unpleasant storm is behind them. Now the dispute is clearly established and “cemented” and that is the “factual situation” for each subsequent solution, if and when.
This means that Bulgaria has already entered a phase where it believes that time is starting to work for them. It really works that way.
First, with the well-known developments, Bulgaria “got rid” of the two principled actors in the Good Neighbor Agreement, disputed by various parties in both Skopje and Sofia, before it effectively became operational. Both Borisov and Zaev go down in political history, which is especially important for Sofia’s views on Zaev: an awkward and unpredictable “interlocutor” who, having become Brussels’ (NATO / EU) “favorite Balkan politician” in recent years, has been a real a problem in the international “equation” that the Bulgarians had to solve with their Western allies.
(In this sense, the “bonus” for the Bulgarians will be if Nikola Dimitrov “disappears” from the Macedonian official political scene, because their relations with Bujar Osmani / DUI are fundamentally different, but that would be a broad digression if we now have to explain .)
MACEDONIAN STABILITY HANGS “ON THE END”
Second – in terms of the time it takes for them – Macedonia has entered a political crisis (yes, thoroughly induced by the EU and Bulgaria itself) which, at best, will take a long time to stabilize, and at worst will develop in political chaos that, quite possibly, will trigger new, snap parliamentary elections sometime next year. If this Government is not overthrown in the coming weeks, VMRO-DPMNE will start protests, street riots, blocking of all political and social life in March-April, with the good hope that this will lead to early elections and then victory. to them.
In such a development, Macedonia will not have a functioning political power, practically, in the whole of 2022.
Third, the ultimate behavior of Bulgaria clearly helps for this development, for the solution according to which the next government in Macedonia will be led by VMRO-DPMNE. This does not mean that there is effective coordination between Sofia and VMRO-DPMNE in the procedures to achieve such an internal political outcome in Macedonia. It does not mean that there is not. But even now it is not the most important thing to prove or dispute, the outcome that would go in that direction is more important.
THE ROOTS OF EVIL?
That solution awaits, and probably hopes for, Sofia. The internal political crisis in Macedonia will open a wide political and time space for her – she remembers, time works for her – to restore its disturbed regional and international positions in relation to the current veto. On the one hand, it is clear that in Macedonia there will not be a consistent political coalition in power that could work out a solution to the dispute according to international standards, which are now massively on the Macedonian side, and yet do not yield results. On the other hand, the turmoil here that will bring VMRO-DPMNE back to power, and thus their well-known refusal to talk to Sofia based on the current framework for a solution (there will be no significant new framework, at least not this century), will strengthen Sofia’s position to complete superiority before the international community – because, the whole strategy of Sofia is this bilateral dispute, at any cost, to “embed” it in the formal process of Macedonia’s accession negotiations with the EU. She still does not succeed. But time works for them.
In other words, maybe before the middle of next year, the Bulgarians will be given a functional opportunity to start talking to their Euro-American partners: “You see, you are pressuring us in vain, we are telling you from the beginning that the problem is in Skopje ! ”Etc. тогаш Approximately then will be the moment when various EU members – especially in the context of the general growing crisis trends throughout the Western Balkans – will begin to change their current clear (albeit ineffective) views and move on to the well-known European “mudslinging” for a “crisis solution” to the dispute, where the pressure will grow and increase on the Macedonian side: “Yes, we know, the Bulgarian views are absurd and unjust, blah-blah-blah, but some solution, for the good of “Macedonia must be found!”
We made that “film” in our long edition in solving the problem with Greece. The Bulgarians also watched him. And they saw that it worked.
The “dumpling” CAN ALSO BE SWALLOWED
They are not in a hurry, because the Macedonian-Bulgarian relations have been stagnating for decades, and for another (at least) one or two decades it more or less seems like a completely acceptable time frame for continuing their current – in fact, historical, negative – position towards the current an independent Macedonian civil Republic, which springs from the national sovereignty of the Macedonians. In many calculations in all our neighbors there is always the “mathematically accurate outcome” of the Republic to disappear. In their historical, political and military archives they have detailed and ready solutions for such an eventuality, because the Republic of Northern Macedonia is, de facto, the only new geopolitical phenomenon after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. That’s why everyone is confused and needs time to adjust to that reality. It’s hard for them. And we often help them.
This logic is the oldest geopolitical framework used in resolving the numerous Balkan historical disputes (especially when it comes to Macedonia): you do nothing to improve relations when you do not have to, and when it seems you have to, you buy time to postpone it. acute pressure. It does not matter that all this can be to the benefit of your own harm, if the harm to the other is greater than yours. In this case, by definition, the damage to Macedonia will be much greater than to the Bulgarians.
The discourse of this whole Bulgarian (and not only theirs) Balkan “doctrine” seems to have only one important problem: the “property list” of the Republic of Northern Macedonia, from 1991 onwards, is “certified” and kept in the US archives. . It is the “dumpling” that has stuck in the regional “throats” of many.
But they say to themselves, because they themselves have important positions in the American regional strategy: “In this world, nothing is eternal, not even the American interests for Macedonia in the Balkans. Time works for us! ”
Indeed, it seems so. The sand in the Balkan clock is not with the quantities from the Sahara. That, however, was best understood by Zoran Zaev. And he retired.
Source: Sloboden Pecat
