CIVIL Hybrid Threats Monitoring
SUMMARY: As Russia intensifies its attacks on Ukraine, Trump’s policies increasingly serve Moscow’s strategic interests, shifting pressure from the aggressor to the victim. Europe faces growing strategic isolation, supporting Ukraine’s struggle for survival while confronting expanding Russian hybrid warfare. Meanwhile, the Kremlin seeks to exploit political divisions, institutional vulnerabilities and pro-Russian networks across Europe and the Western Balkans, undermining democratic resilience, Euro-Atlantic integration and support for Ukraine.
Moscow does not need every European government to openly align with the Kremlin. It needs enough political division, institutional weakness and strategic hesitation to undermine Europe’s collective response.
THE STRATEGIC SHIFT | Washington becomes part of Europe’s security dilemma
Last week, CIVIL assessed that Russia’s shadow war was aimed primarily at the systems sustaining Ukraine: communications, logistics, defence production, shipping and allied cohesion.
Developments through 19 October sharpen that conclusion. The most consequential new vulnerability is political: the growing convergence between Washington’s policy decisions and Moscow’s strategic interests.
Russia intensified its winter coercion campaign. Missile and drone attacks struck 28 Ukrainian energy facilities, depriving more than half a million people of electricity, heating or water. A woman was killed in Kyiv. Ukrainian authorities reported that they had received no timely advance warning from international partners.
Hybrid pressure is also spreading across NATO’s eastern flank. Lithuania raised security alerts at more than 15 strategic facilities following an attempted arson attack against a Starlink ground station. Responsibility remains unconfirmed, but the incident illustrates the growing vulnerability of communications infrastructure supporting Ukraine.
These developments expose a dangerous transformation of the strategic environment. Ukraine is defending itself against Russian military aggression, Europe is confronting Russia’s expanding hybrid operations, and Washington is increasingly directing political and economic pressure toward Kyiv rather than Moscow.
WASHINGTON’S TURN | Trump’s policies serve Moscow’s strategic interests
The Trump administration’s latest decisions represent more than another episode of diplomatic friction with Ukraine. They indicate a profound shift in the practical effects of American policy.
President Donald Trump has accused Volodymyr Zelenskyy of obstructing peace, criticized Ukrainian strikes against Russian refineries, supported arrangements facilitating Russian diesel exports and temporarily waived new sanctions against Moscow.
On 19 October, Trump suggested replacing Zelenskyy as Ukraine’s principal negotiator. He also described Russia as having been “fine” and claimed it “hasn’t been doing much,” despite continuing Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians and critical infrastructure.
These remarks form part of a policy pattern that relieves pressure on Russia (the aggressor) while increasing demands on Ukraine (the victim).
The White House has justified its energy decisions as an incentive for Russian de-escalation and a means of protecting consumers from rising prices. Yet the immediate asymmetry is unmistakable: Moscow receives economic concessions without first demonstrating a verified reduction in its attacks, while Kyiv faces criticism for targeting the infrastructure financing Russia’s war.
At the same time, Ukrainian authorities report problems with intelligence warnings and military communications, while Washington has reportedly delayed approval for urgently needed Patriot interceptor transfers. The United States denies suspending intelligence sharing, and the causes of some reported disruptions remain disputed. But the risks arising from uncertainty over essential defensive capabilities are substantial.
CIVIL has condemned Trump’s Russian diesel arrangement as “a disgraceful pact with a dictator,” while former Ukrainian ambassador Oleksandar Levchenko has examined its economic concessions and strategic consequences.
CIVIL’s assessment is that Trump’s policy is aligned with several central objectives of the Kremlin: weakening Ukraine’s negotiating position, protecting Russian energy revenues, undermining Ukrainian military options and opening divisions within the Western alliance.
This is an assessment of observable policy effects, not an allegation of secret coordination between Washington and Moscow.
But the absence of evidence of coordination does not eliminate responsibility for the consequences.
Trump’s approach risks replacing the principle that aggression must carry consequences with a transactional formula under which Russia receives incentives while Ukraine is expected to make concessions. The aggressor is rewarded; the victim is blamed and pressured. It is obscene and senseless, yet its consequences shape the daily horrors endured by Ukrainian civilians.
Putin’s reported proposal for a summit with Trump and Xi Jinping, potentially without Ukrainian participation, reinforces the danger of allowing great-power bargaining to override Ukrainian sovereignty.
As CIVIL has emphasized: Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.
The central problem is no longer simply the unpredictability of American policy. It is the possibility that Washington’s pursuit of a negotiated settlement is making Russian aggression less costly while making Ukrainian resistance more difficult.
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EUROPE’S SOLITUDE | Defending Ukraine while defending itself
The consequences extend far beyond Ukraine. The European Union is increasingly becoming the principal institutional supporter of Ukraine’s survival and the central political actor confronting Russia’s expanding hybrid campaign against European democracies.
The scale of this responsibility is measurable. According to the European Parliament’s research service, the EU and its member states had mobilized approximately €224.5 billion in financial, military and humanitarian assistance by October 2026, much of it through loans. By the end of June, EU institutions and member states had allocated €85.7 billion in military support, compared with €64.6 billion from the United States.
Europe is therefore no longer simply supplementing American leadership. It is carrying a decisive share of Ukraine’s financial and military support.
This does not mean that Europe is completely alone. The United Kingdom, Norway and other partners remain firmly engaged, while American weapons, intelligence capabilities and defence technologies remain critically important.
The US administration has not formally withdrawn from NATO or ended all assistance to Ukraine. But the political reality is stark: Europe cannot assume that the White House shares its priorities in confronting Moscow, even as Europe remains dependent on American capabilities in essential areas of defence.
Meanwhile, Russia’s hybrid warfare against Europe is intensifying.
On 8 October, the Council of the European Union extended sanctions against actors responsible for Russian destabilization activities, citing continued and intensified hybrid operations, including foreign information manipulation and interference.
The campaign encompasses sabotage, cyberattacks, threats to critical infrastructure, political interference and coordinated disinformation. Its objectives extend beyond obstructing support for Ukraine. Russia seeks to undermine the political cohesion, democratic institutions and security of Europe itself.
This creates a double strategic burden. Europe must help Ukraine survive Russia’s conventional war while simultaneously defending European societies against Russian hybrid aggression.
The growing divergence between Washington and European capitals creates an additional vulnerability that Moscow can exploit – uncertainty over transatlantic solidarity.
Europe faces an emerging strategic isolation. It is expected to finance Ukrainian resistance, defend its own democracies and maintain continental security while the leading military power in NATO increasingly pursues arrangements with Moscow that European governments regard as damaging to their security interests.
This is not yet a complete rupture of the transatlantic alliance. But it is a serious erosion of the political assumptions on which European security has depended for decades.
These developments create an opportunity for the Kremlin to intensify its influence operations in non-EU countries, including the Western Balkans, as well as in countries with weaker institutions or complying governments, such as Bulgaria or Slovakia.
Moscow does not need every European government to openly align with the Kremlin. It needs enough political division, institutional weakness and strategic hesitation to undermine Europe’s collective response.
THE INFORMATION WAR | The Kremlin’s narrative gains American amplification
Russia does not need to manufacture every useful narrative when important elements of its messaging are echoed by statements from Washington.
Trump’s repeated accusations against Zelenskyy provide Kremlin-aligned networks with powerful material: Ukraine supposedly obstructs peace, attacks Russian energy facilities irresponsibly, raises Western fuel prices and prolongs a war that could otherwise be settled.
The reality is precisely the opposite. Ukraine has sought a just and lasting peace while defending its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Its strikes against Russian refineries and other strategic facilities aim to disrupt the infrastructure and revenues sustaining Moscow’s war machine. Meanwhile, Russia continues attacking Ukrainian cities, killing civilians and destroying essential infrastructure. The surge in global fuel prices has been driven primarily by the US-Israeli war against Iran and disruptions to oil shipments through the Persian Gulf, although Ukrainian strikes have also affected diesel markets. And it was Russia that launched its aggression against Ukraine in 2014 and escalated it into a full-scale invasion in February 2022. Despite enormous losses and a prolonged battlefield stalemate, Moscow has shown no credible willingness to end its aggression without imposing unacceptable conditions on Ukraine.
Blaming Ukraine for the continuation of this war while easing pressure on Russia is a fundamental inversion of responsibility, one that directly reinforces the Kremlin’s information warfare objectives.
Russian officials and commentators are already welcoming the growing Washington–Kyiv rupture, although they remain cautious about the durability of Trump’s decisions.
The danger lies in the credibility that statements by an American president can lend to narratives previously associated primarily with Kremlin propaganda.
For the Western Balkans, these developments open further opportunities for information manipulation. In Serbia, North Macedonia and across the region, Kremlin-aligned narratives can be repackaged as calls for peace, economic pragmatism, neutrality or resistance to allegedly irresponsible European policies.
The potential strategic effect is to shift public attention from Russia’s aggression to accusations that Ukraine and its European supporters are preventing peace.
This would directly undermine public understanding of the war and weaken the political foundations of European solidarity.
FORECAST | Moscow will test Europe’s resilience and Washington’s concessions
Russia is likely to examine whether continued military escalation produces additional American pressure on Ukraine rather than stronger international pressure on Moscow.
At the same time, Russian hybrid operations may seek to exploit Europe’s growing security responsibilities, institutional disagreements and vulnerability to political polarization.
The principal early-warning indicators are further American economic concessions to Moscow, delays or restrictions affecting Ukrainian defensive capabilities, diplomatic initiatives excluding Kyiv, escalating infrastructure incidents across Europe and coordinated disinformation campaigns portraying European support for Ukraine as dangerous or futile.
For Europe, the challenge is no longer limited to maintaining assistance to Ukraine. It is to build sufficient political, military, economic and technological resilience to withstand Russian pressure even when American support becomes uncertain or conditional.
The defining strategic danger is that Moscow may discover it can continue its aggression, obtain economic concessions from Washington and simultaneously exhaust Europe’s capacity to sustain Ukraine and defend itself.
If that pattern persists, the damage will extend well beyond Ukraine’s borders. It will undermine the credibility of deterrence, the authority of international law and the security foundations of the European continent.
Russia is waging war against Ukraine and a shadow war against Europe. Washington’s current policies risk weakening both fronts of resistance, at precisely the moment when Moscow has the greatest incentive to intensify its pressure.
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