By Jabir Deralla
The Balkans are once again at a crossroads between truth and manipulation, democracy and authoritarianism. As elections and other high-stakes political processes approach across the region and nationalist leaders sharpen their rhetoric, the air grows thick with unease and tension. The tremors now felt in every capital are part of a geopolitical game that extends far beyond the Balkans. The critical developments unfolding in Bosnia and Herzegovina form part of a long-game strategy to redraw political and ideological boundaries under the banner of the so-called “Serbian World.”
And all that in the deep shadows of the “Russian World.”
A Fragile Balance at the Edge of Collapse
What appears as separate crises — a referendum in Republika Srpska, clerical nationalism in Montenegro, or democratic backsliding in North Macedonia, are in fact interlocking parts of the same geopolitical puzzle.
This “Serbian World” project is neither spontaneous nor benign. It is an organized, state-driven strategy of influence, closely synchronized with Moscow’s hybrid operations across Europe. Together, they aim to erode the fragile democratic consensus that has kept the Balkans at peace for more than two decades, since the last armed conflict, in North Macedonia in 2001.
The “Serbian World” in Practice
The playbook Belgrade deploys repeats itself across the Western Balkans: in Montenegro, it leans on religious mobilization; in Republika Srpska, it fuels secessionist gambling; and in North Macedonia, it wages disinformation warfare — as detailed in my analysis “No Bullets, No Borders, Conquered by Narrative.” The tactics differ, but the objective remains the same: to expand Serbia’s influence, weaken democratic institutions, and derail Euro-Atlantic integration. The method is is domination without open conflict, through narratives, captured institutions, and relentless strategic pressure, all in close coordination with the Kremlin.
In Montenegro, the Serbian Orthodox Church (SOC) became the decisive political instrument. The litije (church-led processions between 2019 and 2021) mobilized tens of thousands under religious symbols but with unmistakably political intent. The result was the downfall of the pro-Western government of Milo Đukanović and the rise of a Serbia-aligned leadership. The Church’s involvement was clearly tactical, demonstrating how faith can be weaponized to achieve political goals.
In Republika Srpska, Belgrade maintains a de facto patron-client relationship with secessionist leader Milorad Dodik. His open calls for independence, regular political pilgrimages to Moscow, and open admiration for Vladimir Putin reveal how deeply the “Serbian World” is intertwined with the Kremlin’s geopolitical narrative. The same duplicity defines the politics of Aleksandar Vučić who declared loyalty to the EU, but coupled with a steady drift toward anti-Western alliances.
In that same context, Serbia and Russia are not merely influencing North Macedonia — they are reshaping it. Through propaganda, cultural domination, and ideological infiltration, a hybrid war is being waged without a single shot fired. The battlefield is public perception, and the weapons are lies, manipulation, and captured loyalties.
Taken together, these cases expose a widening network of authoritarian influence connecting political, clerical, media, and intelligence actors from Belgrade to Moscow — reinforced by kindred regimes in Budapest and Bratislava, and amplified by far-right movements across Europe.
Nowhere, however, are the consequences of this strategy more visible — or more dangerous — than in Bosnia and Herzegovina. There, the “Serbian World” is far more than an influence operation. What we see in Bosnia and Herzegovina for quite some time now is a blueprint for disintegration. More precisely, it is a systematic effort to unmake the state itself.
Bosnia and Herzegovina on the Brink
Bosnia and Herzegovina has become the ultimate testing ground for the “Serbian World” — a laboratory of hybrid destabilization where the balance between peace and collapse hangs by a thread every single day. Republika Srpska has emerged as its most dangerous instrument — a weapon of destabilization, and potentially, of disintegration.
On October 25, 2025, Republika Srpska will hold a referendum aimed at rejecting the authority of Bosnia’s state-level courts and the Central Election Commission. If it passes, Milorad Dodik will proclaim it as “the will of the people,” framing secessionist defiance as democratic expression. However, beneath the populist theatre lies a direct assault on the constitutional order established by the Dayton Peace Agreement — the cornerstone of the fragile peace that ended the bloodiest war in Europe since 1945.
Only weeks later, on November 23, an early presidential election will follow. It will test whether Dodik’s SNSD can maintain its iron grip or whether a fragmented opposition can mobilize public frustration into real challenge. But in truth, this vote is about whether democratic competition can still exist in an entity increasingly defined by authoritarian control and state capture.
Meanwhile, Republika Srpska already functions as a parallel state. It rejects state-level institutions, runs its own policing and judicial systems, and governs as if Sarajevo were a foreign capital. Each unilateral act is a strike against the constitutional fabric of Bosnia, transforming it into a confederation, to say the least. Moreover, those determined to rewrite borders through manipulation treat the Dayton Agreement as an obstacle.
As the crisis deepens, the United States and the European Union are once again being drawn into a familiar and uncomfortable role — mediators in a conflict they believed they had resolved three decades ago. But their record is mixed at best. Western diplomacy has repeatedly managed to freeze conflict, but far from resolving it. Every concession made in the name of “stability” has emboldened those who profit from instability.
Expectedly, the danger extends far beyond Bosnia’s borders. With figures now aligned with the U.S. president Donald Trump regaining power in Washington, Dodik and his patrons in Belgrade and Moscow may find a new reservoir of political strength. Even a silent nod from Washington could be interpreted as permission — a devastating signal of retreat from the post-Dayton commitment that has sustained Bosnia’s unity and prevented renewed conflict for nearly thirty years.
Bosnia is a mirror of Europe’s vulnerabilities. It reveals how fragile peace becomes when truth is relativized, institutions are hollowed out, and democracy is left undefended. The “Serbian World” and its counterpart, the “Russian World,” do not need armies to win. They thrive on the destructive condition of societies — silence, fatigue, and the illusion that peace can survive without justice.
The Domino Effect
Bosnia’s crisis is a warning shot for the entire region and beyond. If the Republika Srpska referendum succeeds, or if Dodik’s defiance continues unchecked, the ripple effects will spread far beyond Bosnia’s borders. The strategy at play is to conduct a transnational project designed to destabilize, fragment, and realign the Western Balkans within an authoritarian axis stretching from Belgrade to Moscow.
A successful secessionist maneuver — or even a prolonged constitutional paralysis — would embolden destabilization elsewhere. In Montenegro, it would reaffirm the grip of clerical nationalism and accelerate the erosion of civic identity. In Serbia, it would strengthen the illusion of historical justification, deepening the cult of grievance and exceptionalism. And in North Macedonia, it would amplify propaganda networks already active in undermining public trust in institutions, democracy, and the country’s Western path.
The stakes could not be higher. The Balkans are once again becoming the stage where external powers test democracy and Europe’s resilience. Local political crisis will easily spiral into a regional breakdown — a slow-motion implosion of the very principles that underpin the European project.
Bosnia matters far beyond Sarajevo, Montenegro beyond Podgorica, and North Macedonia beyond Skopje. Their fates will determine whether the post–Cold War vision of a free Europe can withstand the menace of twenty-first-century hybrid warfare.
The greatest danger is always in complacency. In the false comfort that silence is stability. When democratic governments look away, when international actors prioritize short-term calm over long-term stability, they play directly into the hands of those who weaponize chaos. The “Serbian World” in the Balkans and the “Russian World” in Europe thrive in the vacuum left by Western hesitation — in the silence between statements, and in the pauses between high-level summits.
North Macedonia may well be the next — and most vulnerable — domino: a frontline state where democracy and truth are already under siege by the forces of nationalist, identitarian politics.
The lesson is clear: hybrid warfare begins with disbelief and ends with disintegration. Bosnia is the epicenter, but the shockwaves are already reaching every corner of the region. What happens next will depend on whether Europe and its allies recognize the storm for what it is — and whether they act before it’s too late.
The Road Ahead
The road ahead will demand more than cautious diplomacy and statements of concern. It will require courage – moral, political, and strategic. For too long, the Western Balkans have been treated as a problem to be managed, not a region to be defended. That hesitation has allowed malign actors to operate with impunity, to rewrite narratives, and to turn democracy itself into an object of ridicule.
Peace, as Bosnia reminds us, is not self-sustaining. It requires constant defense — not only through institutions and international agreements, but through hard work to reveal the truth, to demand and secure accountability and justice, and through the everyday practice of civic vigilance. The “Serbian” and “Russian World” thrive on the opposite — on confusion, division, and fatigue. Their architects understand that when societies grow numb to manipulation, when lies go unchallenged, the path to authoritarian control becomes almost effortless.
Europe cannot afford the luxury of another cycle of years-long appeasement disguised as pragmatism. Every concession to Dodik’s defiance, every shrug toward Serbia’s double-triple game, every indulgence of nationalist rhetoric in North Macedonia endangers the very foundations of the European idea. The West must recognize that the battle for democracy is being fought in classrooms, newsrooms, and parliaments across the Balkans and beyond.
The defense of democracy begins with clarity. It means naming the threats for what they are and refusing to normalize them. It means standing with those who speak the truth when it is most inconvenient. And it means remembering that disinformation and authoritarianism are not abstract dangers — they are systems designed to control how people think, act, and hope.
The “Serbian World” and the “Russian World” are all about control. They will not stop at borders — especially when crossing them no longer requires armies, only influence. Those who believe in freedom, truth, and democracy must decide to draw the line. And all of that begins with the courage to say: enough.
About the Author: Jabir Deralla is an award-winning journalist, analyst, and human rights advocate focusing on democracy, disinformation, and hybrid warfare in the Balkans and Europe. Among his works are the book “Ukraine – Years of Heroism” and the co-authored the “Defending Democracy and Human Rights.”
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No Bullets, No Borders, Conquered by Narrative: The Silent Conquest of North Macedonia