Prof. Dr. OLIVER ANDONOV
“General Mihailo Apostolski” Military Academy, Skopje
Continued from: THE HYBRID THREATS FROM RUSSIA (1): Modelling and Approaches
Skeptics will say that such a thing doesn’t exist, that it’s an imagination, but if they themselves are able to take a look at themselves from the side, they might be able to see their own delusion and see themselves as victims of Russian hybrid threats.
How Russia models hybrid threats in practice
A particularly significant area for hybrid threats from Russia are social networks, the sphere of information and the media where public opinion is created in Macedonian society. In this area, we might first think that there is a conflict of interests between the “Serbian World” and Russian interests in North Macedonia. But that’s only invisible to superficial observers, because the Serbian world is precisely modeled by the Russian world as a para-hybrid threat at the regional level.
The Serbian world relies on soft power, that is, on cultural dominance in North Macedonia and its connection with religion, and this, especially cultural dominance, has a strong support in awakening, maintaining and strengthening sentiment towards Yugoslavia. In fact, it’s a classic copy of the Russian narrative of nostalgia for the USSR, to which the narratives of Pan-Slavism and Orthodoxy or the Russian world are added as instruments.
Creating misconceptions through propaganda approaches: What are the facts?
To explain each of these models and the accessibility that is organized through them to a level of penetration into the consciousness and reason of the personality of the citizen in North Macedonia, we would need more than one essay. Therefore, we will briefly focus on the creation of misconceptions through propaganda approaches on social networks. It’s precisely here on social networks where most of each individual’s time is spent, practically, there is a possibility for Russian hybrid threats to apply multiple models and approaches that will seem realistic and accurate to citizens. The fact that the “Serbian World” will be additionally attached is not an obstacle for Russian hybrid threats, because even through Serbian portals, Russian hybrid threats will only additionally “confirm” their information through an indirect medium. Thus, Macedonia becomes an active proxy state, nestled in the southern wing of NATO, in which, through direct and indirect media access, a hybrid war is modeled through the prism of creating a public opinion that is strongly anti-NATO and anti-EU.
Within this modeling, the historical-manipulative approach is extremely important for creating an image that Europe, the United Stated and the United Kingdom hate the Macedonian people and Macedonia. A special focus is placed on the role of Great Britain during the Greek Civil War and the role of the Macedonian population in the ranks of the DAG. In these historical-manipulative approaches, especially in the given example of the civil war in Greece, the emphasis is placed on an ethno-national approach with a dose of an ideological component such as the anti-fascist struggle. Nowhere are the political-ideological context of the war and geopolitical games and influences commented on. Hence, the role of Great Britain and its support for the then Greek government against DAG is placed outside the geopolitical context and what had already been agreed at Yalta, which Stalin wanted to change on an ideological-political basis into a new reality and a change in spheres of influence. At the same time, the narrative is additionally promoted that the change of the country’s name with the adjective North and the Prespa Agreement are the work of NATO, the EU, and the United States.
The approach is completely the same and the modeling of the understanding regarding the role of Tsarist Russia and its imperial intentions (similar to those of Stalin) for the capture of Constantinople and the war with Turkey in 1878. Through twisted historical images and the replacement of geopolitical theses, Macedonian citizens are being presented with the narrative of supporting and liberating Macedonia from Ottoman slavery, that is, that Russia had good intentions towards Macedonia, but Bulgaria had great aspirations and created the Treaty of San Stefano, and then Europe at the Congress in Berlin (June 1878), once again took away Macedonia’s right to be a state.
Of course, this is an inaccurate and completely manipulative historical narrative. The fact is that Tsarist Russia never had a friendly attitude towards anyone and that it used and uses everyone to realize its own geopolitical goals. Russia never even considered the existence of a Macedonian people and state, except in manipulative historical-mythological depictions in modern times for the purpose of gaining influence and waging a hybrid war.
The fact is that Russia creates San Stefano Bulgaria and on the territories of European Turkey which today are parts of at least five countries. As is the fact that they appointed Alexander Battenberg, a relative of the Russian Empress, as the first hereditary prince. As is the fact that at that time Macedonia was a region within Rumelia and was divided into three Sanjaks, having no state-building capacity at all, because it was in the midst of the revival and the struggle for liberation from the Greek (patriarchal) church rule. Only later, after 1885, and especially after 1894, did the Macedonian political and linguistic separatism, about which political and literary circles in Sofia at that time spoke and wrote, clearly becomes apparent.
But all these facts are completely hidden from the public, which is informed superficially, through content on social networks, most often accompanied by a comment by the publisher of the content that is completely inaccurate both outside and within the content itself. With inaccurate historical data and a pronounced mythology based on Pan-Slavism and Orthodoxy.
In particular, the modeling and approach of Russian hybrid threats against North Macedonia are applied in relation to the use of the Orthodox Church and the Orthodox faith, which are used as an instrument of the Kremlin in the implementation of geopolitical interests, especially in the Balkans. In this context, Orthodoxy is used as a substitute for Russian politics and influence in the absence of another ideological and political basis for influence. This, of course, gives great potential for Russian hybrid threats in Macedonia, especially when put together in the context of Pan-Slavism and the possibility of using the Orthodox Church as an instrument in Russia’s geopolitical tendencies. The context of Orthodoxy and Pan-Slavism as instruments for modeling and approach in the realization of Russian hybrid threats against Macedonia is complex and deserves special attention.
North Macedonia as a starting base for active actions and creating conflicts in the region
It is extremely visible that the war for North Macedonia and its alienating from NATO and the EU is crucial for Russian geopolitics as a starting base for active actions and creating conflicts in the region. The success that the Kremlin has achieved at this current moment by turning North Macedonia into a proxy state that publicly talks about NATO and the EU, concludes strategic agreements with the United Kingdom and the United States, but in fact constantly watches and waits for signals from Moscow through Belgrade and Budapest. However, it does not have the potential to develop to the extent of completely alienating Macedonia from NATO.
In the context of the geopolitical interests of NATO and the EU, the space of North Macedonia is part of the space of NATO and EU, both in a security sense and in every other aspect. This makes it clear that Moscow will try to distance the country from NATO, but even more so to keep it outside the EU so that it can, based on the constant creation of conflict between North Macedonia and the EU, model its future approaches to waging a hybrid war against the EU.
Basically, this conflict is not real, it is modeled by Russia through a mythological approach and the influence on social networks on the average Macedonian citizen. In this way, through this influence, the Kremlin, with the support of Belgrade and Budapest, creates conflict in Macedonian society regarding the attitude, above all, of Macedonians towards the EU and NATO as hostile alliances. As a counter-approach to NATO and the EU, less timidly, but with many inaccuracies and glorifications, BRICS is offered as a substitute. And that is one of the models for approaching Macedonian citizens and creating public opinion based on lies and mythology.
The main solution for North Macedonia is to strengthen resilience and deterrence against hybrid threats. This sounds like a phrase, but basically, the country has a strong need for direct and concrete support from partners in NATO and the EU to deal with hybrid threats from Russia.
How to continue?
The first and most difficult thing is to get the state government and political parties in North Macedonia to openly and clearly turn to NATO and be a trusted partner. Partnership and trust are built over years, but also on the basis of a voluntary approach to sharing the same values. Precisely the question of values is a serious problem in the country, and most often refers to the incomprehensible to the majority “traditional” values, again related to Orthodoxy.
The second approach is that of the EU, which must make it clear to every Macedonian government how it should behave in a European spirit, and such behavior be rewarded, but at the same time put under control. The opposite behavior should be clearly sanctioned.
Apparently, in North Macedonia, unfortunately for us, two approaches to political influence are functioning.
It is the approach of punishment and reward through constant pressure on the power structure and political structures in general, especially if it personally affects government representatives or political representatives and their material and financial well-being, and which should be applied by the EU and NATO.
And the approach of mythologization and fabricated historical-manipulative models of approaching citizens, which Russia implements through various instruments in its hybrid performances.
The solution to reducing Russian hybrid threats againstr North Macedonia does not lie solely in the country itself and its capacities, which are extremely questionable and proven weak, and even less so in the awareness of these influences among the political structures in the country. The solution lies in the political, economic, financial, security, value, cultural, educational, and any other social influence by the EU, the United Kingdom, and the United States, both planned and long-term.
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Editor’s note: In line with CIVIL’s editorial policy and international agreements, references to “Macedonia” in the original script have been rendered as “North Macedonia.”
