By Olivier Védrine
Director of the Jean Monnet Association
The war waged by Russia against Ukraine had already accelerated the process of deglobalization. European citizens are now abruptly realizing that their security depends on greater economic sovereignty.
Pandemic
The first major shock came with the pandemic. Europeans, like many others, suddenly understood how dependent they were on external sources for products that had become vital—such as masks, gloves, semiconductors, and vaccines. Countries with strong pharmaceutical industries were the first able to produce vaccines and, therefore, protect their populations.
The combined effects of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine have hastened the end of an era. Disruptions in logistics, rising energy prices, volatility in agricultural markets, minerals, and metals—after the pandemic, the war in Ukraine further destabilized the fragile balances of a world that is now turning away from globalization.
The conflict in the Middle East may mark an even deeper turning point. The war launched in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and the new conflict in the Middle East represent human tragedies whose long-term shadow will likely endure. Their repercussions—economic, social, and diplomatic—are difficult to predict.
The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East mark the end of the “happy globalization” of the past thirty years.
Fukuyama
With the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Eastern Bloc, the Soviet Union disappeared. Many believed this marked the dawn of perpetual peace, in a world where liberalism, democracy, and the market economy had definitively triumphed.
What an illusion—if one knows even a little history.
In 1992, just one year after the fall of the USSR, Francis Fukuyama published one of the most famous books of the late 20th century, The End of History and the Last Man. Nothing, it seemed, could stop the great movement toward global pacification: countries of the Global South, led by China, would catch up, aspiring to become like the United States.
But Fukuyama was wrong.
In 1996, Samuel Huntington brought the debate back to reality with another landmark work, The Clash of Civilizations. Then came September 11, 2001, confirming that such a clash did indeed exist.
“Happy globalization” had been nothing more than a beautiful illusion.
On January 7, 2026, the United States announced its withdrawal from 66 international organizations, including 31 entities within the United Nations system. The return of Donald Trump to the presidency clearly signals that Washington has abandoned the narrative of happy globalization. While globalization once served U.S. interests, it is no longer seen as a useful tool of influence.
If the conflict in the Middle East drags on, it is likely to further weaken already slowing global growth and contribute to a resurgence of inflation.
The world as we knew it no longer exists—and never will again.
A new world is emerging, fundamentally different, where power dynamics and the use of military force will be central to international relations. The illusion of a cohesive “international community” has collapsed. International organizations inherited from the Second World War must be urgently reformed to prevent chaos.
Originally published in Tribune de Genève (April 10, 2026)
Original title:
La fin de la globalisation heureuse
Pandémie, guerre en Ukraine, conflit au Moyen-Orient et retrait américain des organisations internationales ont précipité la fin d’une époque. Le nouvel ordre mondial qui se dessine repose sur la force militaire et la souveraineté économique.
Professor Olivier Védrine is a political scientist, journalist and university professor, and Director of the Jean Monnet Association.
This article was originally published in Tribune de Genève (Switzerland) and is republished with the author’s permission. The English version was prepared with the support of AI (ChatGPT) and editorial review by CIVIL Media.