by: SASO ORDANOSKI
Before big improvisations and talented analyses begin about the consequences of “Janez Jansa’s non-paper”, which proposes a complete, new redrawing of the Balkan borders, it would be good to see the broader context.
After its publication, it’s clear that such a non-paper does exist. It’s not quite clear who composed it, but available information suggest that it was created on the “axis” Ljubljana-Budapest, resulting from the right-wing conservative-populist circles of Orban and Jansa’s government. Let there be no doubt, that is part of their wider strategy to break up the current relation of forces and of the very position of the European Union. The non-paper, even though this it is also not clear as to who/how, has been submitted to Brussels, which is still keeping silent and is distancing itself from the entire affair.
The purpose of such obscure documents, when the phase of controversy over who/when/how published ends, is to publically legitimize the strategy they are advocating. Then comes the phase of determining the content of the document on different sides and factors at a “lower level”. We are now in that phase: media, experts and general practice “fortune-tellers” and, more or less, marginal politicians will express their opinion, in an atmosphere of relative cacophony, through which “raising” of the legitimacy of the project is achieved.
By this, the non-paper and its efforts to become a public, factual situation, have been accomplished. Up to this phase, the important national, regional and international factors (and their intelligence, diplomatic and analytical centers) have been reserved and have kept back in their reactions, as they are expecting and analysing the reactions “from the ground”, marking the “configuration” of the balance of forces in regards to the proposals of the non-paper. Everyone is looking at everyone else “shrewdly” and assessing who and how much is actually involved “in the non-paper”.
The moment for placing this non-paper is opportunistic, conveniently chosen: just as Russia and China in different regions around the world with their actions and behaviours are checking the positions and readiness for reaction, on various topics, of the new government in Washington, so are different European and non-European factors on the Balkans testing the readiness of Biden’s administration – still the most important factor for the stability here, without whose consent there is no redrawing of borders – for possible changing of the existing and longstanding regional status quo.
And, let’s be clear, everyone is “enjoying” a little in the anticipation of reactions to the non-paper, because its theses are radical, dangerous, risky and primarily in the sphere of the regional security, and for many that “enjoyment” – still – is “free”, because someone else has taken the risk to compose and publish the non-paper.
And, who is that “someone else”?
The new “anti-European” right-wing European axis in Brussels (most loudly led by Orban) rightly assesses that in order to continue its “national”, domestic political survival in power, it has to expand and reinforce its confrontational, often anti-democratic, national-chauvinist agenda also at the international level. The timing for that is perfect, as it comes in a period of a high level of chaos and general dissatisfaction in the European Union in situations of post-Brexit, political, economic and social shock due to the pandemic and redefining of the Union’s views in terms of important energy issues and relations towards the European periphery and Russian-Chinese influences. Certainly, the presidential elections in France, the drama of which will follow next year, and Merkel’s departure from power in Germany, are a strong trigger for calculations about who and what will overpower the European continent in the next one-two decades. The predictions are frivolous, and some even on the verge of the geo-political blade.
For the government in Macedonia, in this phase, it’s important to have completely open “eyes and ears” and, without prejudgments and “cries” (about “double standards”, about insincerity, hidden agendas and similar international skills), to follow the development of events, in close coordination with Washington and official Brussels. The project “One society for all” – something that in the theory of the development of the multi-ethnic system of government is called “centripetal democracy” – is supersonically superior to the 19-century, primitive political concept of the non-paper. That development, and not this non-paper, should be a priority in the work of the government.
Having in consideration his address, it’s important that we soon find out, if possible from him, our beloved Nikola Gruevski’s part in the composing of this non-paper. If possible, loud and clear. And then the attitude of the Macedonian opposition towards this project.
Things with the Albanian factor in our country are, seemingly, more complicated, since the non-paper, among else, contains the dangerous regional adventure for “Greater Albania”. It is recommendable not to fall into various nationalist affections at press conferences and on the social media, before the “dust settles” from this new Euro-right-wing provocation. It is recommendable – but, normally, it won’t happen, because the widespread national-chauvinist political bipolarity here has its own line of “drifting” in the manic changes of the depressive oscillations.
Finally, the entire non-paper is part of the “hybrid war” against the normality to which both Macedonia and the entire region, and even the world, are strongly exposed to, in the flood of fake news, hate speech, malicious speculations and similar tools for disavowing democracy and stability. Actually, the alleged creators of this non-paper are the non-alleged financiers and inventors of this propaganda media dirty war that is raging across our public sphere after the fall of Gruevski, with all aware and unaware supporters of that project here.
That’s that, for now. It seems to me that in just a few weeks we will have a clearer picture about the “bush” from which this “rabbit” of Janez ran out.
translation: N. Cvetkovska
