Despite months of buildup and intensified assaults, Moscow’s push has failed to deliver a breakthrough, leaving the war locked in a high-intensity stalemate. Meanwhile, the hybrid war continues—projected across Europe through disinformation, cyberattacks, sabotage, and political interference, extending the conflict far beyond Ukraine’s borders.
By Xhabir Deralla
Russia’s much-anticipated spring offensive in Ukraine is underway, but instead of a breakthrough, it got stuck. Across the front lines, from the eastern Donbas to the southern regions, Russian forces have stepped up assaults in recent weeks, deploying armored units, increasing troop pressure, and launching some of the largest aerial attacks since the beginning of the invasion.
Yet, despite this escalation, the battlefield reality tells a different story. After months of buildup, Russia entered spring 2026 aiming to regain momentum and break Ukrainian defenses. Instead, the offensive has faced with a stubborn and increasingly sophisticated resistance.
For the first time in more than two years, Russian forces made no territorial gains in March, according to battlefield assessments, while Ukrainian troops managed to reclaim small areas. Even where Russian forces continue to attack, progress is measured in meters, not kilometers. Gains are incremental, often reversed, and come at significant cost.
Ukrainian officials say the offensive is real, but contained. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has acknowledged ongoing Russian pressure while emphasizing that Ukrainian defenses are holding the line.
Escalation in the skies
If the ground war has stalled, the air war has intensified dramatically. CIVIL’s sources report that in the past days alone, Russia launched hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles in rolling waves, targeting cities, infrastructure, and energy systems.
March saw a record number of drone attacks, with thousands of long-range UAVs launched—more than at any point since the full-scale invasion began. These strikes are part of a broader strategy aimed at exhausting Ukrainian air defenses, disrupting daily life, and applying constant psychological pressure on civilians.
Targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure has been a consistent pattern since the first days of the invasion. International organizations, including the United Nations and human rights groups, have documented widespread violations of international humanitarian law, including deliberate and indiscriminate attacks, executions, torture, and forced deportations. Thousands of cases of war crimes have been recorded, forming part of ongoing international investigations into Russia’s conduct in the war.
From Kharkiv to Kherson, the effects are visible: damaged infrastructure, civilian casualties, and repeated disruptions to basic services.
A war of attrition and adaptation
Despite its scale, Russia’s offensive is struggling to achieve its core objective: breaking through Ukrainian lines.
Several factors explain this. First, Ukraine’s defenses have hardened into a dense system of fortifications—deep trenches, minefields, and layered positions that absorb and slow down attacking forces. Second, the battlefield has become decisively drone-dominated. Ukrainian forces use drones for constant surveillance and precision strikes, detecting and destroying advancing units before they can penetrate defensive lines. This shift has made traditional maneuver warfare increasingly difficult and costly, turning much of the front into a lethal “kill zone” where movement is immediately exposed.
Finally, there is the issue of limited operational depth. Russian assaults often achieve tactical gains but fail to translate into sustained advances or broader breakthroughs. Positions are taken, but not exploited.
Analysts expect Russia to maintain pressure in the coming months, but warn that under current conditions, no major breakthrough is likely in 2026. Instead, the war continues to evolve as a high-intensity contest of attrition, where both sides adapt, strike, and endure—but neither decisively advances.
The conflict has now fully transformed into a war of attrition. Russia continues to rely on its advantages in manpower and production, maintaining constant pressure along multiple axes. Ukraine, in turn, has adapted, leveraging technology, precision strikes, and flexible defense tactics to neutralize larger forces.
At the same time, Kyiv has launched limited counteroffensive actions, particularly in the south, aimed at disrupting Russian plans and reclaiming ground.
The result is a battlefield defined by contradiction. There is constant fighting, high casualty rates—particularly on the Russian side—and shifting tactical positions, but no strategic movement. Despite relentless assaults, front lines remain largely unchanged, reflecting a war in which intensity continues to rise, while outcomes remain elusive.
Beyond the battlefield in Ukraine
The war is increasingly shaped by global dynamics. The conflicts in the Middle East are influencing energy markets and geopolitical priorities, indirectly affecting the conflict in Ukraine. Russia is benefiting from higher oil prices, while Ukraine is expanding its diplomatic and military outreach to partners beyond Europe. At the same time, peace efforts remain stalled.
More than four years into the full-scale invasion, the war has entered a new phase. Russia can escalate—but cannot break through. Ukraine can resist—but cannot yet decisively reverse the situation. The result is a war that continues at full intensity, while remaining strategically locked.
Across Europe’s eastern and southeastern flank, this shadow dimension of the war is particularly visible. In the Western Balkans, Russia continues to pursue a long-term strategy of influence and denial, using disinformation, political proxies, and institutional obstruction to slow Euro-Atlantic integration and maintain what analysts describe as a state of “managed instability.” In Hungary, concerns are growing over deepening political and informational ties with Moscow, including coordinated narratives, election interference, and covert influence operations designed to shape domestic and EU-level decisions. Further north, the Baltic States—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—face an intensification of hybrid pressure, from disinformation campaigns and cyberattacks to airspace incidents and psychological operations testing NATO’s resolve.
The war in Ukraine is not geographically contained—despite the narratives promoted by Eurosceptic and extremist actors, and Kremlin proxies. Russia is deliberately projecting the conflict outward, turning much of Europe into a secondary theatre of hybrid warfare, designed to erode unity, distort reality, and weaken support for Ukraine’s freedom and a just peace.