By Dragan Mishev
In cooperation with CIVIL Hybrid Threats Monitoring Team
At a time when Russia is under great international and domestic pressure, sanctions have tightened—especially after Trump finally imposed sanctions on the largest Russian oil companies, and the Russian economy and military industry are burdened with enormous costs and failures, while Ukrainian drones are striking military infrastructure facilities deep inside Russian territory, and Moscow is increasingly among the targets, Vladimir Putin announced that Russia had tested its newest nuclear cruise missile, the “Burevestnik”—a weapon that, according to the Kremlin, has practically unlimited range, can hover for a long time and can evade the West’s missile defense systems.
Putin’s announcement of the “Burevestnik” nuclear missile is more for domestic, somewhat for foreign use
Putin’s announcement, apart from being a demonstration of the technological achievements of Russia’s military-industrial complex (which in this case was met with a considerable dose of skepticism among Western experts), also seems to be intended more for domestic than for foreign use.
The announcement of the “unique nuclear weapon that no one else in the world has” is a true example of “a big fuss to show force,” both in front of a foreign and an increasingly dissatisfied domestic audience. The Kremlin is using the opportunity to assert its power over the West—not only by announcing the new weaponry, but by showing that “we have something that can shake up the status quo,” situation and on Russia’s side. This has a deterrent effect, but also a blackmailing one: if the West supports Ukraine, Russia will show “new weapons”, at the same time the citizens of Russia are increasingly realizing that their country, led by the “favorite” leader Putin, is not the winning side in the war in Ukraine, which instead of promises that it would last 48 to 72 hours, has now entered its fourth year.
We’ve already seen that kind of rhetoric before with other Russian missile systems (“Oreshnik,” “Kinzhal,” etc.) that are promoted by Russian propagandists as practically “uninterceptable,” which in a few minutes will deliver their destructive powers to London, Berlin, Paris, although experts are already raising serious questions about whether that is really so.
A parallel is often drawn with the end of World War II, when Adolf Hitler and Nazi Germany deceived their citizens with claims of “monstrous new weapons” (V1 and V2) that would save them from defeat. In practice – the announced super weapons were too expensive, produced in insufficient quantities, arrived too late, and defeat was inevitable. The same can be said of the Burevestnik: the world may be seeing a demonstration, but it is not certain that the weapon is fully operational or that it can change the outcome of the conflict.
In that sense, Putin is repeating the old pattern: when the war is not going according to plan, he turns to nuclear rhetoric and super weapons to project resolve and strength.
As foreign experts point out, the Burevestnik project has faced numerous failures and technical obstacles: many tests have ended unsuccessfully or with explosions, although the Kremlin claims that the last test has been completed.
One analyst wrote that “Burevestnik is not as uninterceptable as claimed” — NATO’s defense systems, according to some assessments, have the means to respond to such missiles. This means that this weapon is more of a psychological and strategic weapon than an effective large-scale combat solution.
Trump not impressed by the missile launch
In response to Putin’s announcement about Russia testing an “invincible” nuclear-powered cruise missile with a potentially “unlimited range,” Trump reacted casually, saying that such tests are “inappropriate,” reminding his Russian counterpart that the United States has a nuclear submarine near the Russian coast — which, in practice, poses this as a direct rhetorical and strategic threat.
Although the tests raise new tensions and fears of nuclear war, Trump, who is currently touring Asia and is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday, was not impressed by the missile launch, telling reporters on Monday that Putin should focus on ending the war in Ukraine.
“I don’t think it’s an appropriate thing for Putin to be saying, either, by the way: You ought to get the war ended, the war that should have taken one week is now in… its fourth year, that’s what you ought to do instead of testing missiles”, Trump told reporters at Air Force One on Monday.
Escalation of the risk of nuclear war
The announcement of the test certainly increases tension between Russia and the West, especially the United States. When one side openly demonstrates a new nuclear weapon, it encourages the other side to respond or increase its readiness. From here arises the risk of an arms race that could become uncontrolled.
In this particular case, Trump’s response to Putin’s announcement — emphasizing the presence of an US nuclear submarine near Russia makes the situation even more critical: it could be perceived as a direct threat, or at least as a step in demonstrating readiness.
As is well known, international arms control agreements are already under pressure. Russia has suspended its participation in the New START treaty, leaving even less room for trust and transparency.
The announcement of a new nuclear weapon could further worsen this situation. Although the weapon may not have a massive combat impact, its promotion creates a “powerful image” in psychological warfare. That image can have political significance — within Russia, it strengthens national sentiment, and sends a message abroad: “Don’t interfere with us.” In a situation where Moscow is under international pressure, such rhetoric serves as a tool for mobilization and for distracting the opposition.
What can we expect?
♦ The Kremlin will likely continue its nuclear rhetoric —warnings, demonstrations, and perhaps new tests — especially if the conventional war does not go in the right direction.
♦ The West’s response will be cautious: an overly aggressive reaction risks dangerous escalation, while a weak one could be seen as weakness. The position of the US and NATO will be a combination of deterrence with diplomatic regulation.
♦ On the ground — for Ukraine and the region — this will mean growing uncertainty: any additional open display of nuclear capability will heighten fears and the need for protection, as well as the regional race for defensive systems.
♦ An extreme, though not impossible, option — combining this rhetoric with real military action: if Putin senses an existential danger, he could shift from rhetoric to something that would actually put nuclear forces at risk for the first time since the Cold War.
A real nuclear threat or just a very loud demonstration?
Putin’s announcement of the Burevestnik test is not just a technology, but a strategy – a strategy of intimidation, a demonstration of power, but also an indicator of weakness: when conventional means fail, nuclear rhetoric is the way to go. Just as Hitler, in his final phase, promised “monstrous weapons” to keep his citizens in line, Putin is using the thesis of a new super weapon to maintain his legitimacy and to make the West think twice before pressing ahead. However, the actual capability of that weapon is doubtful, while the risks of escalation are very real. The question at hand is: Will the world face a real nuclear scenario or just a very loud demonstration?
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the official positions of CIVIL’s partners and donors.