By Xhabir Deralla

Some believe that Putin’s Russia is in a strong position. One of them is U.S. President Donald Trump – along with his buddies – who seems convinced that Putin holds all the cards. But where exactly? At some lonely poker table in his gloomy Gremlin castle, playing against his own reflection in the mirror? If these are the “cards” that Trump and his friends believe Putin has, fine. But let’s be serious for a moment.

What cards does Putin actually hold? By his own “special military operation” plan, Kyiv was supposed to fall in three days, and all of Ukraine within three weeks. That was the grand design. Three years later, Ukraine stands. Ukraine fights back, stronger than ever. So, what has Putin really accomplished?

Let’s lay his cards on the table:

• The abduction of 20,000 Ukrainian children.
• A genocidal war filled with systemic war crimes—looting, raping, torturing civilians.
• The indiscriminate bombing of civilian homes, kindergartens, maternity hospitals.

These aren’t strategic victories—they are acts of desperation, the moves of a leader losing control. So, are these signs of a winning hand? Obviously not.

Three years ago, the world saw what was supposed to be a global military superpower attack on a sovereign nation. But what did this “superpower” encounter? A rag-tag army of barely armed civilians and very poorly armed soldiers – stopped the advance of that “global superpower.” So, is that really a card in Putin’s favor? I wouldn’t say so.

Perhaps we should look at the territories Russia has occupied, including those seized back in 2014. Are they an asset in negotiations? Hardly. These areas are devastated, depopulated, economically crippled. There is no real economy, no reliable public services—just ruins and repression. Instead of being strategic gains, these territories are burdens that Russia must subsidize, police, and defend, while also providing basic services like healthcare and education. So, occupied territories—are they really cards in Putin’s hands? I don’t think so.

And let’s not forget: for eight months now, Ukrainian forces have been holding ground inside Russia itself, in the Kursk region. That’s right—Russia has lost territory to Ukraine. Not only has Russia lost ground, but this invasion shatters Putin’s illusion of absolute control—he can’t even secure his own land. Even if Russian forces eventually push Ukraine out of Kursk, the fact remains: Putin and his Russian Federation are deeply vulnerable. A far smaller army has occupied Russian territory for eight months!

Then there’s the “mighty” Russian war machine, crawling forward at a snail’s pace—advancing just a few hundred meters a day while suffering staggering losses. The casualty rate is so catastrophic that Russia now relies on North Korean soldiers to fill its ranks—and be killed in the process. So much for the Kremlin’s old cries against foreign soldiers—apparently, they can bring in North Koreans, Cubans, and Belarusians, but Ukraine can’t get military support and defend itself?

What a card!

And what about Russia’s economy? The Ruble is in freefall, the war economy is sputtering, young professionals are fleeing the country, and living conditions are worsening. Factories are shutting down, inflation is skyrocketing, and families are struggling to afford basic necessities—this is the reality behind Putin’s so-called war economy. That’s not strength—it’s a slow collapse.

So, what’s left in Putin’s hand? Maybe – just maybe – he’s been saving one last card up his sleeve. And now, at just the right moment, he pulls it out.

He pulls out Trump.

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