A snap mayoral election in North Macedonia has produced significant shifts in local party support, with the ruling VMRO-DPMNE retaining its lead and the opposition DUI making substantial gains. But can the results of one municipality reveal broader political trends, or are the figures already becoming ammunition for competing party narratives?
The snap mayoral election held on October 18, 2026, in Brvenica, a municipality in northwestern North Macedonia, has set the stage for a runoff between the candidates of VMRO-DPMNE and the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI).
According to the State Election Commission, with all 24 polling stations counted, Stojancho Radichevski of VMRO-DPMNE received 2,945 votes (38.89%), while Arkin Jahiji of the DUI-led National Alliance for Integration (NAI) secured 2,152 votes (28.42%).
Jakup Huseini of VLEN, the ethnic Albanian coalition participating in the national government, finished third with 1,529 votes (20.19%). The opposition Social Democratic Union (SDSM) candidate, Jovica Radeski, received 707 votes (9.34%).
The runoff is scheduled for November 1.
Electoral shifts: Winners, losses and political implications
The election was called following the death of Mayor Jovica Ilievski in June 2026. It provides an unusual opportunity to compare voting patterns within a single year, although important differences between the two electoral contests require caution.
VMRO-DPMNE, the leading party in North Macedonia’s governing coalition, maintained first place but received 443 fewer votes than in the 2025 local elections, a decline of approximately 13.1%.
The most significant increase was recorded by DUI’s political bloc, whose support rose from 1,147 votes in 2025 to 2,152 in 2026 — an increase of 87.6%.
Meanwhile, VLEN’s vote declined from 2,021 to 1,529, representing a drop of 24.3%.
SDSM increased its vote from 481 to 707, a rise of approximately 47%. However, this percentage increase comes from a relatively low starting point and leaves the party well behind the leading candidates.
One particularly noteworthy comparison concerns the two governing partners, VMRO-DPMNE and VLEN. Combined, their candidates received 4,474 votes in 2026, compared with 5,409 in 2025 — a decline of 935 votes, or approximately 17.3%.
This is a politically relevant figure, but it should not automatically be interpreted as a unified expression of dissatisfaction with the national government. The two coalition partners appeal to different constituencies, operate within different local political dynamics, and face different competitors.
What the figures cannot tell us
Turnout reached 46.58%, with 7,572 voters participating — 284 more than in the 2025 elections. The number of invalid ballots declined from 251 to 161.
However, participation figures and shifting party totals cannot independently explain voter motivations. There are also important methodological limitations. The 2025 elections involved both mayoral and municipal council contests, while the October 2026 election concerned only the mayoral position. Different candidates, local alliances, campaign dynamics and mobilization strategies may all have influenced the outcome.
Nor can the increased support for DUI be automatically interpreted as a direct transfer of voters from VLEN. Establishing such movements would require additional evidence beyond the aggregate election results.
The runoff and the battle over political narratives
Radichevski enters the second round with a lead of 793 votes over Jahiji. However, the final outcome will depend on voter mobilization, turnout, and the decisions of citizens who supported eliminated candidates or abstained in the first round.
In the meantime, the results offer political parties opportunities to construct competing narratives. VMRO-DPMNE can emphasize its continued lead while downplaying its reduced vote total. DUI can highlight its substantial growth as evidence of political recovery. SDSM can point to its percentage increase, while VLEN may stress the specific local circumstances to explain its decline. Each interpretation may contain accurate figures, yet none provides a complete picture on its own.
Brvenica offers a useful snapshot of changing local political relationships, not a reliable national political barometer. Drawing broader conclusions would require comparative data across municipalities and elections, as well as a deeper examination of voter behavior.
The fundamental distinction is between what election statistics demonstrate and what political actors claim they mean. Selective use of accurate figures can produce a misleading political picture just as effectively as the dissemination of false information.
Xhabir Deralla, in cooperation with the CIVIL Analytical Team
Originally published in Macedonian by CIVIL Media. Adapted for international readers.
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