The National Bank predicts recovery of the Macedonian economy with growth of 3.9 percent for this and next year in the latest macroeconomic projections. Moderate acceleration is expected in the medium term. Inflation is projected at 3.1 percent and a moderate upward correction has been made compared to the April projection, and next year inflation is expected to be 2.4 percent.
Despite the energy crisis and the growth of global price growth, no shocks are expected for now, and the projections of the international financial institutions are that next year there will be stabilization in the energy sector.
The Governor of the National Bank Anita Angelovska-Bezoska assures that the situation is being closely monitored and that the Central Bank has at its disposal a number of instruments that would be properly used if necessary in order to maintain macroeconomic stability.
– We are closely monitoring the situation, especially in the energy sector and the global price growth, but for now no shocks are expected, inflation is expected to remain moderate, Angelovska-Bezoska underlined at today’s press conference dedicated to the November projections.
If the crisis has prolonged effects, as the governor pointed out, they would have a negative impact on several segments of the economy such as inflation, higher pressures, trade balance.
– This year we are making a moderate upward correction of the trade deficit, ie we are worsening the trade balance and one of the reasons is the higher energy prices, but for now all projections of the relevant financial institutions are that there will be stabilization of the energy sector next year, said Angelovska- Bezhoska.
According to projections, the deficit is expected to remain moderate at 3.8 percent, and in the medium term to be around two percent of GDP, similar to the pre-crisis level.
Growth risks are mostly downward, but according to the alternative scenario, which envisages lower foreign demand, greater restraint from consumption and investment of domestic entities, growth would be lower by an average of 1.2 percentage points for the period 2022-2023. The effects of the Accelerated Economic Growth Plan, which is not taken into account in the projections, are considered as a positive risk.
State reserves, according to data from the National Bank, amount to 3.6 billion euros, which is a high level compared to 2008 when they amounted to 1.5 billion euros. Positive trends were also observed in foreign direct investments, which in the first half of the year amounted to 190 million euros, compared to the same period last year when they amounted to 130 million euros. There is also an increase in remittances in the first nine months.
The banking sector is expected to continue its solid support by banks to companies and citizens. Deposits are expected to grow by 7.1 percent annually this year and moderate acceleration to 8 percent in the medium term.