In the National Bank survey conducted in September this year, analysts in the country have expressed that they expect a gradual overcoming of the crisis and recovery of the economy in the next two years.
“In terms of economic activity, compared to the previous survey, the surveyed analysts expect a deeper decline in the domestic economy this year of 4.3 percent, but a slightly higher economic growth in 2021 and 2022 of 2.7 percent and 3.4 percent , respectively. Similar to the previous survey, such expectations are related to the uncertainty of the global crisis of the Covid-19 virus and the possibility of introducing new restrictive measures to deal with it, uncertain foreign demand and its impact on the domestic economy, declining domestic demand, restraint of foreign and domestic investors and lower lending activity. On the other hand, analysts expect that the monetary and fiscal measures taken, the progress in Euro-Atlantic integration and the optimism for finding a vaccine that would be effective in dealing with the coronavirus, as well as the accelerated implementation of capital projects will have a positive impact on the economy in the future, and will contribute to the post-crisis acceleration of its growth,” the National Bank said in their statement.
The results of the Survey do not indicate significant changes in the expectations of the surveyed economic analysts for the average inflation rate.
The survey shows that the average expectations for 2020, 2021 and 2022 are almost unchanged compared to the previous survey conducted in June and point to an average rate of 0.6 percent in 2020, while for 2021 and 2022 they still point to an average inflation of 1.3 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively. Hence, the statement added, the assessments of the surveyed economic analysts point to expectations for low and stable inflation, both by the end of this year and in the upcoming two-year period, with a gradual rise in prices.
The statement from the National Bank states that the conclusions from this survey, which the National Bank conducts four times a year, represent the views of the respondents economic analysts.