Analyzing the strikes on Russian facilities in Crimea, ISW refers to “a series of explosions at a Russian ammunition depot and a transformer substation in Dzhankoi District and an airfield near Hvardiiske, Crimea.”
Analysts have suggested that the attacks on Russian positions in and around Crimea are likely part of a coherent Ukrainian counteroffensive to regain control of the west bank of the Dnipro River.
“Russian supply lines from Crimea directly support Russian forces in mainland Ukraine including those in western Kherson Oblast,” ISW experts said.
They added that the Ukrainian strike on logistical targets in Crimea, which is the sovereign territory of Ukraine, would not violate Ukrainian commitments to Western partners regarding Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied weapons within Ukrainian territory.
“Ukraine’s targeting of Russian ground lines of communication and logistic and support assets in Crimea is consistent with the Ukrainian counteroffensive effort that has also targeted bridges over the Dnipro River and Russian logistical support elements in occupied Kherson Oblast,” ISW said.
Analysts noted that there are no indications that Ukrainian forces used U.S.-supplied weapons in recent strikes on Crimea.
“The net effects of this campaign will likely be to disrupt the ability of Russian forces to sustain mechanized forces on the west bank of the Dnipro River and to defend them with air and artillery assets on the east bank from Ukrainian counterattacks,” ISW analysts said.
