By Ljubomir Kostovski

When Prime Minister Viktor Orbán failed in his attempt to create a shock by releasing materials targeting the opposition Tisza Party—the so-called “Hungarian Watergate”—he instead generated a new wave of anger against himself among opponents led by Péter Magyar, who are, without doubt, in a convincing lead ahead of the April 12 vote. In response, Orbán declared that he still had “a few bullets left in the magazine and would not hesitate to use them.”

His attempts to boost his electoral chances by portraying Volodymyr Zelenskyy and heroic Ukraine as his main enemy have simply been exhausted, without producing any serious effect. It resembled the morning crowing of a rooster making threats—while risking ending up in the pot prepared for lunch.

Israeli spin doctors, as advisers, typically save their strongest blow for immediate impact just before elections. It is perhaps in this context that one should look for those “last bullets.” The visit of U.S. Vice President J. D. Vance was certainly one of them, but amid the current policies of the United States and their immediate consequences affecting individuals across the planet, it does not seem that such a visit could have the same positive impact as it might have had in different times.

The “knockout” in elections, according to these campaign strategists, is meant to come in the final round. In the case of the Slovenian elections, their client—the right-wing Janez Janša—accused Marta Kos, a high-ranking figure within the Brussels establishment, just five or six days before the vote, of allegedly being a spy for the Yugoslav, and later Serbian, secret service (UDBA). How persuasive this story was is reflected in the fact that Janša’s rating jumped by 4 percent, leading into a period of uncertainty that would shape the future government in Ljubljana.

The logic behind the timing chosen by such consultants is clear: leave no room for an effective response to an attack based on an obvious lie. In political environments like those in the Balkans, and similar systems, those in power often need days to even grasp what has hit them. In Slovenia, however, the ruling party “Freedom” responded two days before the vote, when a senior government official publicly explained to the nation who stood behind the operation—foreign actors, clearly identifying their firm, pointing out that it was done for money and without scruples, and that they were interfering in what should be an entirely internal matter of a sovereign state. In the final moment, there was a reversal—this time in the opposite direction—and by a margin of just one seat, Prime Minister Robert Golob was given the first opportunity to form a government.

The same advisers are also believed to be behind the brutal exploitation of the fall of a female student from the fifth floor of the Faculty of Philosophy in Belgrade—without a conclusive investigation—an incident that, “coincidentally,” served to cast doubt in the public eye on student-backed electoral lists in the recently concluded local elections in ten Serbian municipalities. The effect was evident: candidates supported by the circle of Aleksandar Vučić won in all municipalities.

It remained an open question what could be done as a final move in favor of Orbán—something that could dramatically influence the Sunday elections in Hungary. The expectation was that such a move, too, would occur immediately before the vote.

WAS THERE A CHANCE TO REPEAT THE TRICK?

And then… an alleged act of terrorism occurred, amplified by Vučić’s propaganda (on which foreign advisers can always rely)—an attempt to plant explosives near the TurkStream gas pipeline, which also supplies Hungary with energy.

Namely, on April 5, explosives were discovered near the town of Kanjiža, placed about 200 meters from the pipeline. The assessment was simple—point the finger at Ukraine (!) and accuse it of exporting terrorism. In this scenario, President Aleksandar Vučić was expected to act as a kind of key witness to such accusations. Immediately after learning of the “hostile act” near Kanjiža, he called Viktor Orbán and warned him about an attempted sabotage that could have harmed the energy situation in both countries.

Additional details followed: the explosive was allegedly powerful (around 4 kilograms), sufficient for such a target. Then came the narrative that the individual who allegedly planted it acted alone—but was also a migrant, thereby merging two threats that Hungarian authorities constantly emphasize as ongoing dangers. Both a migrant and, allegedly, in the service of Ukraine.

However, it seems that Vučić was more restrained and less accommodating than expected. He did not mention Ukraine and instead stated that the explosive device was of American origin—this coming just before the visit of J. D. Vance to Budapest. A double miss.

Maja Bjeloš from the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP) stated that the discovery of explosives near the pipeline in Kanjiža was politicized from the very beginning, and that communication between the Military Security Agency (VBA) and the president had been unclear—something also indicated by the agency’s director, Đuro Jovanić. She emphasized that neither of them has the authority to investigate such an incident.

“The entire event was politicized. First, the politicization followed the release of the information itself, with the President of Serbia disclosing details from an ongoing investigation for which he is not competent. The same applies to the director of the VBA. The competent authorities are the Security Intelligence Agency (BIA) and the police,” Bjeloš told N1.

She added that the role of migrants was also politicized within the narrative, framed as part of a diversion strategy.

“Migrants are portrayed as a threat, as potential perpetrators of attacks. In our country, migrants are a frequent target of the far right. Aleksandar Vulin used force against migrants with a sonic weapon. We do not know who ordered it, nor who carried it out,” Bjeloš said.

The choice of the “perpetrator” (a migrant) came from the Serbian side, via VBA director Jovanić, while Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán pointed the finger toward Ukraine—leaving himself room to “prove” such claims without direct involvement from Serbia. And potentially to create grounds for declaring a state of emergency, under which elections, logically, could not take place—thus postponing them for “better times.”

“All of these are unsubstantiated insinuations, and such matters should not be made public before they are proven. These efforts must be thoroughly examined, as they may have serious diplomatic consequences,” Bjeloš emphasized in her statement to N1.

A TERRORIST WHO WAS TRACKED—YET DISAPPEARED WITHOUT A TRACE?

From the moment the news about the operation near Kanjiža was released, the question arose whether this was truly a security threat—or something else entirely—and what exactly this military-police operation had produced. What is unusual in this case was discussed on April 6 in Novi dan (the morning program on N1) by Hungarian journalist Gábor Bodis and retired Major General Momir Stojanović.

Hungarian journalist Gábor Bodis told N1 that in the morning, Viktor Orbán “held a conference near Szeged and said he would defend the country from everything, and that a major battle is underway in Europe.”

“It is interesting,” he added, “how the situation developed from the moment the news was published. Foreign policy expert András Rácz said that the further course of events depends on the information that will come from Serbia. If it turns out that Ukrainians are in any way connected to these events, then Orbán will likely have grounds to declare a state of emergency—and declaring a state of emergency six days before decisive elections could mean everything. As for Orbán’s position, it could reduce the opposition’s lead, and might even result in postponing the elections,” the journalist said.

Retired Major General Momir Stojanović, former head of the Military Security Agency, stated that the event was “accompanied by numerous inconsistencies.”

“Let us say that the president spoke early yesterday, informing us about the search for explosives placed a few hundred meters from the South Stream pipeline, immediately engaging special army units and military police—even though this is not their jurisdiction. Later, the director of the Military Security Agency appeared and clarified that the service had information that a person from a group of migrants planned to place explosives near the pipeline, and that he had informed the president of the Republic. This is surprising, because if the military security service had such information, and claims to have monitored that individual over a longer period, then he was obliged to inform his superior, the Minister of Defense, who should then inform the Prime Minister, and the Prime Minister the President. What does the director of the Military Security Agency have to do with the President? According to the law—nothing,” emphasized Stojanović.

Another inconsistency, he added, is that if the service had information that the individual would plant explosives, it raises questions about how such services operate in practice.

“Would it not have been logical to monitor that individual 24 hours a day, secure the location, control the site, and then wait to see who would appear to place the explosives on the pipeline—and then act? That would have resulted in arrests. Instead, we have the information that the service possessed: the individual placed explosives, a general alarm was raised, the explosives were found, and perhaps we will never find the person. What do we do if we never find them?” Stojanović asked (so far, it seems, that is exactly what is happening).

He believes this is “one of countless cases that have no epilogue and no conclusion.”

According to Stojanović, especially if in the coming period there is no information that the “migrant” has been arrested and prosecuted, it will raise suspicions that the entire event was staged and planned—on the one hand, to assist Orbán in the upcoming elections, and on the other, to restore shaken confidence in the current government in Serbia ahead of its own electoral challenges.

“It could have been the greatest gift—but it did not turn out that way,” the retired Major General concluded.