Trust in public authorities corresponds with people’s willingness to be vaccinated against COVID-19. COVID-19 conspiracy theories are most popular among the countries in the Western Balkan region. North Macedonia expresses the highest level of support for EU and NATO membership in the Western Balkan region, reads the latest GLOBSEC Trends 2020 report.
The outcomes and findings of the report are based on public opinion poll surveys carried out in September and October 2020 on a representative sample of the population in nine countries: Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia and Slovakia.
According to the report, over 1/3 of respondents believe in COVID-19 conspiracy theories. Therefore, only 37% of respondents, on average, are inclined to get a COVID-19 vaccine but this figure rises to 53% among those who trust their public authorities.
“This finding demonstrates the crucial importance of good governance and trust in state institutions, especially in times of crisis. Public authorities should invest resources in earning the trust of their citizens and engage in strategic communication,” said Miroslava Sawiris, Research Fellow for Democracy & Resilience at GLOBSEC Policy Institute.
According to the report, the vast majority of people in the region agree that democracy, as a system based on equality, human rights, fundamental freedoms and rule of law, is good for their country (78%). However, a considerable share of respondents perceive democracy to be a threat when it is described as liberal (41%).
Moreover, numerous respondents believe that the EU dictates policies to their countries.
“Narratives that demonize ‘otherness’ undermine key democratic values of the Euro-Atlantic partnership and are hugely exploited by political stakeholders in the region. A wide range of groups, including liberals, migrants, the LGBT+ community and the U.S., present a threat to the values and identity of respondents. ‘Othering’ and polarization can develop into cultural wars,” added Katarína Klingová, Senior Research Fellow of Democracy & Resilience at GLOBSEC Policy Institute
The study shows that the region has pro-Russian sentiments and believes in Russia-originating narratives. Nearly 4 in 10 people living in NATO member countries in the region, nonetheless, believe that NATO is an aggressive tool of the US and/or that NATO is provoking Russia by establishing military bases in the country’s vicinity, a narrative spread by pro-Kremlin online media.
“Pro-Russian sentiments are especially strong in Bulgaria, Slovakia, Serbia and Montenegro. 3/4 of respondents from thee countries see Russia as the ‘mighty Slavic brother’,” noted Daniel Milo, Senior Advisor for Democracy & Resilience at GLOBSEC Policy Institute.
As a result, the perception that China and Russia are threats is currently low, declining over the past year.
“The majority of people in the region see Russia and China as threats to their security, Most people perceive their countries as too small to garner concern from major powers, a dangerous position, completely opposite to reports from secret services in the region,” stressed Dominika Hajdu, Research Fellow for Democracy & Resilience at GLOBSEC Policy Institute.
According to the report, Macedonians express the highest level of support for EU and NATO membership in the Western Balkan region. And 31% and 28%, respectively, perceive the EU or the US as their key strategic partner.
However, pro-Russian sentiment can also be found, with narratives favourable to the Kremlin resonating strongly with Macedonians. A total of 48% of the population, the second highest in the region, think that Western countries often unjustly accuse Russia of unlawful or fraudulent behaviour. Despite an increasing interest from major global powers in the Western Balkan countries, 66% and 62% of people in North Macedonia do not perceive Russia and China, respectively, as threats to their country.
“54% of Macedonians, the least in the region, believe that having a democratic political system with regular elections and a multiparty system is good for their country,” concluded Ilija Dzhugumanov from ATA-Macedonia.
