By Jabir Deralla
Chancellor Friedrich Merz delivered a New Year address that read as both a strategic assessment of the moment and a call to national confidence. As Germany turns the page into 2026, the speech stands out within German political discourse for its unusual candour and strategic directness. Against a backdrop of unsettled geopolitics and mounting domestic challenges, Merz laid out his government’s priorities — spanning security and defence, migration policy, economic reform, and social welfare.
“Our world is changing at a rapid pace — and all of our lives are affected by this change.”
With this opening, Merz framed 2025 as a year of upheaval whose impacts will echo well into the future. He described an era of “epochal shift,” in which Germany must renew the foundations of freedom, security, and prosperity. Taken together, the speech suggested a deliberate attempt to shift Germany’s strategic self-image — from that of a primarily economic power to that of a more explicitly political and security actor within Europe.
Russia’s war: A continental threat
At the heart of the address was a frank assessment of Russia’s war against Ukraine:
“A terrible war is raging in Europe, one that poses a direct threat to our freedom and our security.”
Merz rejected the notion that this is a distant or regional conflict, arguing instead that it has continent-wide implications:
“We are seeing more and more clearly that Russia’s aggression … was and is part of a plan targeted against the whole of Europe.”
He also explicitly stated that Germany now faces sabotage, espionage, and cyberattacks on a daily basis — underscoring how the boundaries between warfront and homefront have become increasingly blurred in modern conflict.
Strengthening defence and security
Merz outlined a set of measures aimed at strengthening Germany’s defensive posture: amending the Basic Law (Germany’s constitution – Grundgesetz) to secure resources for defence, reintroducing voluntary military service as a sign of national readiness, establishing a National Security Council, and deepening cooperation with allies.
“With our voluntary military service … we are ready to defend ourselves — because our freedom and our way of life are worth defending.”
On deterrence, he was clear:
“We want to be able to defend ourselves so that we do not have to defend ourselves.”
This formulation echoes classical deterrence logic, but also marks a rhetorical shift in German political language — from restraint toward preparedness.
Transatlantic change, European strategic autonomy, and Germany’s role
Merz acknowledged that the transatlantic relationship is changing:
“Our partnership with the United States … is changing. For us Europeans, this means that we must defend and assert our interests much more strongly by ourselves.”
This was among the most geopolitically consequential statements of the address. Some commentators have described it as an understatement, given how profoundly the transatlantic relationship has been strained since Donald Trump returned to the White House at the beginning of 2025 — through his open hostility toward the European Union, his transactional approach to NATO, and his repeated questioning of alliance commitments.
Read in this context, Merz’s formulation is less a diplomatic nicety than a recognition of a structural shift: Europe can no longer assume that U.S. strategic alignment is automatic, stable, or unconditional. The call for greater European strategic autonomy is therefore not a rejection of the United States, but an attempt to adapt to a world in which American reliability has become contingent, and European responsibility unavoidable.
It is in this light that Merz’s call for a reorientation of European priorities should be understood. He argued that the European Union should “refocus its attention on its core tasks: freedom, security and prosperity.” Rather than positioning Germany as a singular leader, this reflects an attempt to articulate a strategic orientation within a broader European debate — one aimed at strengthening cohesion, clarifying purpose, and enabling collective action on long-term challenges ranging from climate change to technological competitiveness.
Migration: Order, control, and humanity
On migration — a politically charged and electorally potent issue across Europe — Merz emphasized sovereign control paired with humanitarian principles as the cornerstone of his government’s approach:
“We are once again deciding for ourselves who comes to and who must leave our country.”
This statement is significant for its combination of sovereign agency and policy orientation. It signals a departure from a more passive and reactive posture in migration management to a more assertive, rule-based regime. In practice, this approach has meant closing routes associated with illegal and disorderly migration, tightening criteria for entry, and simultaneously creating clearer procedures and incentives for legal and orderly migration pathways.
“For us, humanity and order are two sides of the same coin.”
This formulation — pairing humanitarian intent with orderly control — carries both normative and strategic weight. Normatively, it frames the protection of vulnerable people as fully compatible with, rather than opposed to, border and migration management. Strategically, it serves to reassert state authority, depolarize the debate, and — importantly — signal a tougher policy direction without hardline rhetoric.
In this context, Merz’s approach reflects an attempt to negotiate a middle path: rejecting both unbounded openness and purely securitized exclusion. It can be interpreted as an effort to build broader consensus around migration policy while also addressing political constituencies that have demanded firmer controls.
Economic reform, innovation, and social sustainability
Merz addressed Germany’s economic headwinds directly, pointing to both external and internal constraints:
“Our strategic dependence on raw materials is increasingly being wielded as a political lever against our interests.”
His response centers on relieving burdens on companies — cutting taxes, reducing energy costs, and reducing red tape — while advancing a new innovation and technology policy aimed at strengthening resilience and competitiveness.
“Companies should concentrate on what they do best.”
The underlying objective is not growth for its own sake, but the restoration of Germany’s economic capacity as the foundation for long-term stability — including its ability to sustain social and environmental commitments.
It is in this context that Merz turned to the question of social reform. Acknowledging demographic change and fiscal pressure, he argued that Germany must develop “a new balance in our social security systems” that can fairly serve all generations over the long term.
He highlighted recent reforms, including changes to income support and pensions, and called for further structural adjustments in 2026. Read together, the economic and social elements of the address point to a single logic: competitiveness and innovation are presented not as alternatives to the welfare state, but as conditions for its sustainability.
Confidence, cohesion, and a European horizon
Throughout the address, Merz appealed for confidence and collective responsibility:
“We are not the victims of extraneous circumstances … Our hands are not tied.”
He anchored this appeal in a broader vision of German society:
“We are a country where we live together freely and with equal rights in a spirit of solidarity … we have set standards here — in innovative strength, inventiveness and in our commitment to peace and freedom.”
Merz concluded with a forward-looking outlook:
“2026 can therefore be a year of new beginnings … a year in which Germany and Europe, with new strength, reconnect with decades of peace, freedom and prosperity.”
The address combined strategic realism with political ambition: strengthening defence, reforming social policy, managing migration more coherently, revitalizing the economy, and deepening European cooperation — all linked to an appeal for democratic confidence and social cohesion.
Beyond its domestic orientation, however, the speech also signals a shift in how Germany understands its role in Europe. Rather than retreating inward in response to instability, Merz presented Germany as prepared to assume greater responsibility within a more volatile security environment — not in opposition to its partners, but in support of European stability and collective action.
Whether this orientation will translate into sustained political leadership, durable consensus at home, and effective coordination with European partners remains an open question. But the trajectory is clear: Germany is positioning itself not as a bystander to Europe’s transformation, but as an actor within it.
Sources:
Bundeskanzler website
Full text in English (PDF)