By Florian Dunkel
From an outsider’s perspective, the results of Germany’s federal elections may appear comforting. Pro-European, pro-democracy, and pro-Ukraine parties have secured a clear majority. Despite the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) gaining around 20% of the vote, it is unlikely to be part of any governing coalition—at least if conservatives uphold their commitment to maintaining the political “Brandmauer” (firewall) against them.
Germany is likely to see a shift in government, with a new chancellor from the conservative bloc. In the grand scheme, Germany appears to remain on a stable, pro-European course. And it is reassuring that conservatives are not aligned with Russia. One might say, “Gerade noch mal gut gegangen” (It still went well in the end).
However, the real shifts are not just in the election results—though 20% for the AfD is alarming—but in the election campaign itself. It is no secret that Russia actively supports the AfD to sow distrust and deepen divisions. Parts of the U.S. government and Elon Musk have joined the divisive forces, amplifying and openly supporting the AfD’s agenda. This has had tangible consequences. There is a noticeable erosion of democratic values and a broader shift to the right in all major political debates. This trend threatens not just Germany but the broader European order. Misinformation, polarization, and authoritarian narratives are setting the political tone in ways that could profoundly reshape the future.
Germany has traditionally avoided confronting these external threats too aggressively, often relying on the United States for security and leadership. This was evident in its cautious approach to sending weapons to Ukraine—always ensuring not to outpace Washington. But when it comes to countering Russia and defending democracy, there is no leadership left to rely on—nothing to hide behind.
Looking ahead, it is clear that these forces will only intensify their efforts to divide Europe. Democratic forces having “won” this election will not halt that process. On the contrary, it is just the beginning. Defending democracy is essential, but it is not enough. We need a proactive, unifying vision that inspires and mobilizes people. Every defensive battle costs ground; without a collective, forward-looking strategy, we risk losing more than we can afford.
Germany finds itself caught in a geopolitical limbo—from external threats to internal radicalization, exacerbated by foreign interference. It cannot withstand these pressures alone. The answer must be a European one, rooted in solidarity and pluralism. The very idea of freedom—what it means for us as Europeans—must be redefined and defended together. This includes the countries of the Western Balkans, whose democratic aspirations are inextricably linked to the broader European project.
Europe must respond. This response cannot come solely from governments; it must arise from societies themselves. Only through collective action can we safeguard our democratic values and shape a future built on inclusivity, resilience, and unity.
Florian Dunkel is the Executive Director of CRISP.
Written exclusively for the media platform of CIVIL.
