XHABIR DERALLA
Don’t worry, we already know what 2022 is going to look like. The world will continue to be shaken by the existing crises, probably even worse. The problematic vaccination process in the poor countries will give a push to new COVID variants. Democracy and democratic processes in the world, as in 2021, will mark descending trends, giving way to onslaught of violence, violation of human rights and despotic regimes. The Freedom House 2021 Report concludes that “international balance has shifted in favor of tyranny”.
Existing and new crises
In addition to the existing, new crisis will break out, among which energy, climate and military crises will be felt at every inch of the planet. Insecurity, poverty, lack of food and collapse of health systems under the blow of the pandemic and all other factors will deepen and will affect even the strongest and richest. For the small and poor, this year will be difficult in all possible ways that can be imagined.
Oil prices will also rise. Energy, migrants, the pandemic, the economy and propaganda will be a weapon for settling scores between confronted parties.
Disinformation and conspiracy theories will continue to destroy societies. They will give “wings” to radical structures across the world. Hence, the erosion of democracy and democratic institutions will accelerate and will spill over into the streets. Weapons will become a daily “response” to the problems, with which dialogue will be squeezed out of options for communication between parties in disputes and conflicts. We are leaving a difficult and dark year, but the following will be even more difficult.
Fragile and failed states
From fragile, many countries will go into a state of failed states. Most are countries in Africa, Asia and the Middle East, but Europe is also on the path to this wave (read: Western Balkans).
According to the Fragile States Index, “a necessary precondition for resilience is a stock of social capital. A country that cannot take collective action, a population that cannot make shared sacrifices – cannot be resilient, no matter how good the economy is or how many doctors or ventilators you might have”. A magnificent conclusion, worth remembering.
Hybrid war between the East and West
The hybrid war between the East and West has entered a new, fiercer phase. The first consequences of the confrontation between the US and China can already be sensed. In 2022, the Chinese economy will show the first more serious signs of instability, and this certainly will reflect on many economies around the world.
The world currently is counting down the days to a possible aggression of Russia on Ukraine. It will be a war that will not remain only in that region. The whole world will be affected by the almost certain military conflict.
And North Macedonia?
In the mentioned Fragile States Index, North Macedonia is in the 108th place of 179 countries included in the research. But this should not worry neither the politicians, nor social factors. We live on another planet anyway. Where citizens are ready to jointly bear sacrifices. They are media and politically literate and aware. Although they are poor. Politicians are responsible, corruption is eradicated, while all challenges are welcomed with a plan and strategy, the implementation of which is flawless. Hmm…
Translation: N. Cvetkovska
