CIVIL Hybrid Threats Monitoring in mid-January 2026 identifies a significant and sustained escalation of anti-EU and anti-NATO propaganda narratives across Europe and the Western Balkans. The current wave exploits major geopolitical flashpoints while simultaneously reinforcing and accelerating long-standing core narratives aimed at undermining trust in democratic institutions, collective security, and Western solidarity.

The “Venezuela Operation” narrative

The most pronounced recent spike followed the U.S. military operation in Venezuela (3 January 2026). Pro-Russian influence networks – most notably those associated with the Portal Kombat ecosystem – rapidly mobilized to frame the operation as proof that the United States is an “unreliable,” “reckless,” and “aggressive” global actor.

Narratives such as “the U.S. is a rogue power” and “Europe is Washington’s puppet” have circulated widely across social media platforms, blogs, and podcasts throughout the EU. These messages have also appeared in parts of the mainstream media landscape in the Western Balkans, particularly in Serbia and North Macedonia.

The strategic purpose of this narrative push is twofold. First, to suggest that EU and NATO members are likely to be abandoned or dragged into unwanted conflicts by Washington. Second, to erode confidence in the Alliance by promoting the idea of an imminent disintegration of NATO.

While debates about transatlantic burden-sharing do exist within democratic societies, pro-Russian messaging deliberately exaggerates and distorts these discussions to portray the Alliance as fundamentally unstable and untrustworthy.

Resistance to European “peacekeepers”

Parallel to the Venezuela-related narratives, Kremlin-aligned actors have intensified messaging around early-January discussions on the potential deployment of European multinational forces to Ukraine for post-war monitoring.

These proposals are being framed as “dangerous provocations” and even “legitimate military targets.” Disinformation content frequently warns that “any NATO or EU deployment guarantees nuclear escalation,” while characterizing such missions as a “suicide mission” for European troops.

This narrative stream is explicitly designed to fracture public opinion within NATO member states, most visibly in Slovakia and Hungary, where internal political opposition to EU and NATO consensus positions has recently intensified.

Exploitation of “accession fatigue” in the Western Balkans

A distinct surge has been detected in the Western Balkans over the past 7–10 days, exploiting ongoing peace negotiations and EU enlargement discussions.

Disinformation content portrays the EU as “hypocritical” for accelerating Ukraine’s accession pathway while Balkan countries remain in prolonged accession processes. Common frames include “Ukraine is jumping the queue” and “the EU hates the Balkans.”

The strategic objective here is to depict NATO as irrelevant or hostile to local sovereignty, and present EU membership as both unfair and ultimately unreachable.

Notably, these narratives are no longer confined to fringe spaces. Elements of this framing increasingly surface in mainstream political discourse, including statements by ostensibly pro-EU officials in the region – such as in North Macedonia – who publicly express frustration with perceived EU “double standards.”

Russia’s claims of economic “resilience”

Russian and pro-Russian outlets continue to promote the narrative that Russia is economically resilient despite sanctions. The core claim remains that “sanctions are failing” and that “it is the EU economy, not Russia’s, that is collapsing.”

This messaging is increasingly tailored to far-right and populist audiences across the EU, reinforcing broader narratives of Western decline, elite incompetence, and societal decay.

Combined attacks on support for Ukraine

A notable narrative shift is underway from “Ukraine cannot win” toward “Ukraine will bankrupt you.” This reframing links military aid, economic hardship, accession fatigue, and peacekeeping discussions into a single, emotionally charged argument against continued support for Ukraine.

In the Western Balkans, accession-related resentment is actively fused with claims that Ukraine is unfairly prioritized over countries such as Serbia and North Macedonia. In parallel, social media activity (particularly on Facebook and Instagram) has spiked with content portraying a potential peacekeeping mission as both futile and deadly, using slogans such as “our boys will die for a lost cause.”

This trend also includes a noticeable rise in AI-generated first-person videos featuring alleged “eyewitnesses” claiming that Western aid is being sold on the black market or that Ukrainian frontline units are in open mutiny—formats designed to simulate authenticity and bypass skepticism.

Why this matters

These developments indicate a coordinated, multi-layered escalation rather than isolated narrative spikes. The convergence of geopolitical crises, war fatigue, accession frustration, and economic anxiety creates a fertile environment for influence operations aimed at weakening Alliance cohesion, reshaping public opinion, and constraining democratic decision-making at a critical moment.

Prepared by: CIVIL Hybrid Threats Monitoring Team (CHTM)
Edited by: Jabir Deralla

Transparency note:
This report/article was prepared with limited AI-assisted support, including tools provided by OpenAI (ChatGPT) and Google One, used exclusively for language refinement, editorial suggestions, and open-source scanning support. The analytical framework, structuring, interpretation, assessments, and conclusions are entirely the work and responsibility of the author.