Key Takeaways:
EU Defense Limitations Are Structural: The lack of consensus among the 27 EU states prevents decisive military action under current treaties and decision-making rules.
Not All Willing Are Able: Within the so-called coalition of the willing, only a handful of countries may have the capacity and political will to commit troops — France being the sole EU state to do so thus far.
Ukraine’s Reconstruction Needs Global Buy-In: The EU cannot carry the burden alone; rebuilding Ukraine will require coordinated support from actors outside the Union, including Gulf and Indo-Pacific partners.
Transcript – Emmanuel Dupuy, President of the Institute for European Perspective and Security Studies (IPSE)
Remarks at the Westminster Alliance for Ukraine Event
We see that the 27 EU member states neither have the capacity nor the collective will to send troops based on a consensus framework. This brings up the broader question of whether a new treaty is needed beyond the Lisbon Treaty of 2009.
It also raises the issue of decision-making mechanisms — notably the need to reconsider the qualified majority vote when it comes to the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) and the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP).
At the same time, Europe is demonstrating that it can operate at different levels. There are those who can and those who will — the so-called coalition of the willing, which might involve 8 to 27 countries. But are we absolutely certain that even within this group there are more than two countries with both the capacity and the political will to send troops?
This is what we are now witnessing in real time. The UK has taken the initiative — as demonstrated by its recent moves within the K4 — and Prime Ministers from the UK and Poland, as well as the German Chancellor, have engaged. Yet, as of now, only one EU member state, France, has committed to sending troops. Not the other three. That’s something we must reflect on seriously.
My second point concerns the nature of new like-minded partnerships. If we are to realistically address the question of Ukraine’s reconstruction, we need to think outside the box. Everyone understands that the European Union alone will not cover the cost of rebuilding Ukraine. Other countries — beyond the EU — will have to be involved.
I mention this because former Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz addressed this in Jaipur just a few days ago, and Donald Trump raised similar points in discussions with Saudi Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman (MBS).
