This year is a year of gradual recovery after the first pandemic. Unlike the previous global crisis, which caused long and dull pain, the corona crisis caused rapid and sharp pain – initially with a greater and more widespread effect than the global financial crisis, but with a faster recovery. Growth of 2022 percent is projected for 3,9, which would bring the economy to pre-crisis level, but risks still exist, said the Governor of the National Bank, Anita Angelovska-Bezoska.
– The achievements so far are mainly in line with the expectations of the National Bank. The dynamics of the economic recovery is solid, and the growth in the first three quarters of 4,6 percent is very close to our projections of 4,2 percent. Unlike the previous global crisis, which caused long and dull pain, the corona crisis caused rapid and sharp pain – initially with a greater and more widespread effect than the global financial crisis, but with a faster recovery. “This is primarily because this crisis did not arise from the disruption of economic foundations, but spilled over from the crisis in the health system and the uncompromising need to preserve public health,” Angelovska-Bezoska said in an interview with “Capital”.
The Governor emphasizes that the banks were a significant support to the real sector during the corona crisis, due to the strong capital and liquidity position of the banking system before the pandemic, but also the rapid and strong reaction by the National Bank, which since the beginning of The pandemic has taken a number of measures to ease financial conditions in the domestic economy and increase the liquidity and flexibility of banks.
For next year, the National Bank projects growth of 3,9 percent of GDP, which in 2022 the economy would reach the pre-crisis level.
– The assessment for further growth of the economy in 2022 is based on several assumptions, of which the key is the recovery of the European economy as our most important trading partner. According to the latest projections of the European Central Bank, after the growth in the euro area of about 5,1 percent this year, a solid growth of 4,2 percent is projected for the next one. That, together with a more favorable price situation in metals, would have a direct positive impact on our exports, and indirectly on other segments of the economy. In terms of the domestic environment, it is expected that the immunization process will continue, which will have a positive effect on the confidence and behavior of economic entities and their consumption and investment. Given the high capitalization and liquidity of the banking system, further solid credit support for growth is expected, said Angelovska-Bezoska.
However, as the governor states, there are negative risks for these projections. These are the uncertain epidemiological situation, the rise in energy prices, the stagnation in the supply chains on a global scale, but also the possible faster tightening of the global financial conditions.
Regarding inflation, the governor said that given the projections of international financial institutions to stabilize the prices of primary products next year, it is expected that there will be some stabilization of inflation in our country.
– However, the prices on the primary markets are variable and very uncertain, due to which the National Bank carefully monitors the changes in import prices and the factors that drive them, as well as domestic factors. If deemed necessary, the National Bank is ready to react using some of the monetary instruments available, says Angelovska-Bezoska.
Source: Sloboden Pecat
