At the international conference Defending democracy: Horizons of Freedom, Professor Oliver Andonov addressed the panel “War in Ukraine, Hybrid War in Europe and the Global Democratic Struggle” with a clear warning: Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is a brutal hybrid war with direct consequences for Europe and the democratic world. His intervention highlighted how military force, disinformation, and political manipulation are used to undermine democratic resilience, weaken NATO and the EU, and destabilize vulnerable regions such as the Balkans.
The conflict we are witnessing today is not only an internal or regional one. It is an external conflict involving the entire international community. When we speak about hybrid threats, we must clearly state from the beginning: we are facing a brutal hybrid war.
This war does not affect only the state under attack. It affects all states that are directly or indirectly involved as targets, members, or pressure points of hybrid warfare. Today, I am not speaking as a professor delivering definitions in a classroom. Instead, I would like to speak briefly and directly, as an expert.
Russia’s war against Ukraine is not merely an assault on Ukrainian statehood. It is a deliberate strategic offensive against Europe and NATO. The Kremlin’s objective is to weaken Europe’s democratic cohesion through military pressure, hybrid operations, and narrative manipulation. These actions are designed to fracture societal resilience, undermine defense support for Ukraine, and erode trust in Euro-Atlantic institutions.
Three key concepts illustrate the current security landscape in Europe and globally: resilience, defense, and sovereignism.
Resilience
Resilience refers to the ability of a society to withstand pressure, adapt, and resist hostile influence. Ukraine has demonstrated exceptional societal and institutional resilience through rapid military adaptation, civilian readiness, continuity of essential services under constant attack, and strong public morale. This resilience has been crucial in countering both Russia’s military aggression and its disinformation campaigns.
The open question remains: how resilient are smaller European societies, such as North Macedonia, to similar hybrid pressures? This question requires honest and transparent assessment by institutions, academia, media, and political actors.
We face a serious problem of underestimating and misunderstanding the reality of what is happening in Ukraine—and what could happen within our own societies. Europe must seriously consider whether it is prepared to transition from a peacetime mindset to one adapted to conditions of prolonged conflict.
Defense
Defense encompasses the state’s capacity to protect its territory and population. Territory without people does not constitute a state; these are the fundamental pillars of statehood.
Ukraine’s defense system has demonstrated significant organizational strength, supported by NATO and EU partners. Russia’s hybrid efforts increasingly aim not only to weaken Ukraine’s defenses from within, but also to disrupt and discourage Western military, financial, and political support. This is a core vulnerability that Moscow systematically targets.
In this context, unity is essential. Support for Ukraine must not be personality-driven, but state-oriented—anchored in NATO, the EU, and their partners, including candidate countries moving toward Euro-Atlantic integration.
Sovereignism
The third concept is sovereignism—a narrative actively promoted by the Kremlin. Russia portrays NATO and EU member states as lacking sovereignty. However, sovereignty in the modern world is strengthened through alliances.
During a recent conference in Prague, I discussed this issue with the Greek Minister of Defense, Nikos Dendias. I asked whether Greece is more sovereign today as a NATO and EU member than it was before joining these organizations. His answer was clear: membership enhances sovereignty through access to collective instruments and shared power.
Russia’s sovereignist narrative fuels nationalist and anti-Western sentiments, particularly in the Balkans. It exploits history, mythology, and unresolved regional grievances to weaken Euro-Atlantic integration and destabilize countries such as North Macedonia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, Bulgaria, and others.
The broader strategic aim is clear: to use the Balkans as an internal European front, eroding NATO’s southern flank by amplifying bilateral disputes and mistrust—Greece and Turkey, Bulgaria and North Macedonia, Serbia and Kosovo, and others. This fragmentation undermines collective security and weakens NATO’s effectiveness.
Conclusion
The hybrid war is not confined to Ukraine. It is a continental challenge targeting democratic values, institutions, and collective security. The Balkans, often described as the “soft underbelly” of Europe due to historical divisions and unresolved narratives, remain particularly vulnerable.
Understanding this reality is not optional. It is a prerequisite for defending democracy in Europe.
This article and refined transcript were prepared by the author with AI-assisted language refinement and editorial support. The content remains fully faithful to the original video address. All responsibility for interpretation and publication rests with the author.
Watch the full video from the conference: