By Olivier Védrine
Invited in November to the Berlin Security Conference to receive, on behalf of the Jean Monnet Association, the European Prize “Citizenship, Security and Defence” awarded by the French organisation CIDAN (“Civic Duty, Defence, Armed Forces, Nation”) and by the European Association for Security and Defence, I clearly perceived Germany’s desire for leadership in European defence and in Europe more broadly. The German Chancellor had indeed announced that his objectives were to reclaim leadership in Europe and to revive the Franco-German partnership.
With €800 billion earmarked to “rearm Europe,” the European Union is redefining its defence strategy at a time when Trump’s United States increasingly appears to us to be an unreliable ally.
Friedrich Merz
Germany is at the forefront of this strategic shift, with a certain degree of American support on top of that. As the end of the French president’s term approaches, Europe is yearning for new leaders — and Friedrich Merz, head of the continent’s leading economic power, makes no secret of his desire to assume that role.
At the congress of the Christian Social Union (CSU), the Bavarian sister party of his own Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Friedrich Merz declared that Germany is unequivocally the leading country of the Union, the one that sets the tone and inspires its neighbours. And when one examines the facts and figures, it becomes clear that Germany can indeed assume this leadership role in Europe. It is a giant within the European Union and one of its six founding countries. Germany is the continent’s most populous nation and remains its economic engine.
Germany is the fourth-largest EU country by surface area — the only field in which it does not occupy first place. With reunification, it has far outpaced all its European partners. It remains Europe’s economic locomotive and its largest net contributor: the country that gives the most to the European Union and receives the least in return.
In 2026, Germany’s military budget will be almost twice that of France. Thanks to the lifting of the “debt brake” voted in March, Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s governing coalition will be able to equip Germany with “the most powerful conventional army in Europe.” This obviously implies a substantial increase in the Bundeswehr’s budget in the years ahead, with the goal of raising it to 3.5% of GDP (i.e. €153 billion) by 2029, in order to meet its commitments to NATO.
Elected Chancellor on 6 May, Friedrich Merz wanted to inaugurate a new era for the Franco-German “couple.” After several years of discord between former Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the French president, this new tandem — nicknamed “Merzcron” by the press — promised to revive bilateral cooperation. During the Berlin Security Conference, however, I heard no talk of the Franco-German “couple,” but rather of Germany’s desire to take on European leadership alone, with the unambiguous backing of the Americans. As a result, negotiations on Ukraine are taking place in Berlin and confirm the central role of the German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz.
Published: 03.01.2026, Tribune de Genève
Olivier Védrine is a political scientist, journalist and university professor, and Director of the Jean Monnet Association.