By Marjan Zabrchanec
Thank you for the invitation and congratulations the leadership and the members of Civil who, in these extremely difficult times, open consultations related to the rise of autocratic and radical policies and methods.
Disinformation is only a small portion of the complex hybrid attacks on the overall system of democratic values. Unfortunately, we are witnesses that the democratic world has failed and is still failing to prevent them, and on many occasions has not even managed to defend itself from such attacks.
Today, we must understand hybrid attacks as attacks that lead and will eventually lead to serious conflicts between citizens, between groups, between peoples and between states – these are real wars – wars that we are already witnessing on multiple fronts around the world, wars in which innocent people are already suffering and will continue to suffer, and those who will suffer the most will be the marginalized and weaker citizens.
Disinformation leads to disintegration and destabilization.
Let’s look at this region. We have an active dispute between North Macedonia and Bulgaria and we have the Macedonian government’s refusal to fulfill its constitutional obligations – the outcome is a blocked European integration of the country. This is not only a bilateral issue; it goes deeply within the regional and geopolitical relations.
Look at the developments in Serbia – the protest movement and the radicalized behavior of the government there, the tensions and the shock bombs at the Parliament there today.
Look at the situation around Dodik in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The Balkans are boiling again. Theres is a risk of serious regional security problem.
This situation was caused, among other things, by the long-standing disinformation and hybrid influences from the East against the West, by regimes against democracies.
And, if some time ago we used to say that the creators and distributors of disinformation were hidden in some basements and that democracy would win because the democrats held the main streams in the democratic and Western world, today this is no longer the case – the same ones who spread fake news from basements, today are mainstream political players, leaders of states and governments, the same ones have come out of the basements and today drive on the highways and dictate political trends. In other words – it gets worse.
What is unclear is whether we will face with conflicts in which two or more sides will clash by war or whether the conflicts will continue to be caused by hybrid attacks – for example, chaos in the educational school system due to mass false reports of fake bombs or coordinated explosions of pagers or chaos in traffic due to intrusions with mobile devices into the Google Maps system. However, it is getting worse.
North Macedonia is also not doing well either in defense or in preventing disinformation and hybrid attacks.
The civil society and the media did not accept the offered hand for a joint fight against disinformation from the Government in the period 2018 – 2021. They also did not organize themselves to do anything more than fact-checking. Today, the question is whether the fact-checking programs will survive, considering that META has already terminated cooperation with them, and USAID is almost non-existent.
The government of North Macedonia was a recognized leader in transparency and openness in the region from 2018 to 2023. But, today we have a government that has no intention of dealing with disinformation. From this government, we should expect abolition of transparency and accountability, occupation and control of the media space, an attack on freedoms and a setback in the media and democratic literacy of young people. That’s the only way a government close to Orban can act.
So, how can we deal with such crisis?
- We need pressure for transparency – exposure and unmasking
Civil organizations, activists, journalists have to push for transparency and accountability on all levels. To investigate, to dig for facts, to criticize, to ask questions loudly until an answer is given and to be vocal about every unanswered question.
- We need Decisive actions by democratic governments and institutions – in the countries or municipalities where they exist in Europe
A good example of this is the decision of the Constitutional Court of Romania to annul the elections due to external hybrid influences in favor of one of the candidates, of course close to Putin.
- We need self-organization on alternative online platforms that are not controlled by Elon Musk and those like him
A hybrid action is necessary to expose disinformers and to promote facts and truths. The time is coming when truth has to stream from both, the streets and online basements. Our channels for action are the public spaces and the safe online platforms that are not under the control of political moguls.
We need more content. We need to produce two democratic podcasts for each anti-democratic one. Content is King. No content, no win.
- We need Strong NATO
It is necessary for NATO to remain committed to countering hybrid attacks and promoting mainstream democratic narratives. Same as it has been doing since the beginning of the Russian military aggression against Ukraine. NATO must continue its excellent communication battle, regardless of the US positions on NATO policies.
- And finally, we need a determined Europe.
The evident withdrawal of the American influence on the Balkans suggests that our last opportunity for EU integration may be nearing.
Meanwhile, both Russian and Turkish interests are becoming more pronounced in our region.
Speaking about North Macedonia and the region, unfortunately, the EU’s efforts to communicate its values and opportunities have not always been matched by concrete delivery. This in-consistency has led to a loss of credibility among the general public – So, EU started to lose its credibility here, but the loss has also spread to all those political parties, groups and organizations that publicly advocate for European integration.
However, the support of our citizens for the EU path remains stable, 65% at the moment and it is a window of opportunity.
Europe must deliver what has already promised and even more – EU has to define new deliverables in order to renew the public narrative and the public support in North Macedonia and in the region.
Whether it will be a major financial support for capital projects, whether it will be a new investment in the establishment of the Western Balkans as an open economic zone and single market, or maybe entry of our countries into the Schengen system or maybe involvement of the region in some future European shield – the time is now, a decision and action are needed – the EU must deliver this time in order to counter the anti-European disinformation motives and actions.
Marjan Zabrchanec is communications specialist, consultant, activist and former communications director and national coordinator at the Government of North Macedonia.
