During the drop in export demand for our goods and services last year, which was similar in intensity as during the global financial crisis in 2009, exports fell by 10.1%. Gradual recovery of foreign demand and export growth of about 15.2% is projected in 2021, which is important for the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic shock, the National Bank Governor Anita Angelovska Bezhoska said on Friday.
Addressing the online event on the role of monetary policy during COVID-19 crisis and the macroeconomic projections for 2021, organized by the Goce Delchev University in Shtip, she also added that the data for the first quarter of this year show solid export growth.
Referring to the global environment and the views of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Angelovska Bezhoska pointed out the importance of the global environment for the export activity of the Macedonian economy.
“For us, as the country that has a small economy, the recovery of the global economy, i.e., our most important trading partners, is crucial. According to the IMF, the growth of the European economy is projected at 4.4% and 3.6% for the German economy, whereas roughly 50% of the country’s goods exports going to Germany. It is particularly significant that solid growth of German industry is expected due to the inclusion of domestic production facilities in German car production chains,” National Bank Governor noted.
She added that the projection risks are mainly related to the duration of the pandemic, the implementation of the vaccination process, the continuation of measures to support economies, as well as the speed of restoring confidence and stabilizing the expectations of consumers and investors.
Angelovska Bezhoska presented the macroeconomic scenario of the National Bank for the period 2021-2023, focusing separately on all key segments – expectations for economic growth, price movements, balance of payments and deposit and credit growth.
“2021 is expected to be a year of gradual recovery of the domestic economy, with economic growth supported by the banking system. Economic growth will not cause greater pressure on inflation, which would generally remain at a moderate level,” National Bank Governor Anita Angelovska Bezhoska said, pointing to the risks to the projections, stressing that the National Bank will continue to closely monitor the developments in the domestic economy in the next period.
