By Sonja Kramarska
The entry into the new year 2023, like never before, is filling political structures working on continuing the negotiations for EU membershipwith unease.The government doesn’t have all the cards in hand when it comes to the constitutional changes that are part of the negotiation framework, and the opposition stands firmly on the position that it will not give support, without which it is not possible to come to 80 votes “for” the constitutional changes.
2023 is also the last calendar year of the mandate of the State President, but also of the Government, since in the spring of 2024 and the beginning of summer, presidential and parliamentary elections are to be held, for which it will not be a surprise if they are held together in the spring of 2024. This means pre-election regrouping, calculations and much nervousness on the political scene in 2023.
Therefore, without exaggerating it can be said that 2023 will be turbulent and uncertain, with the anticipation included that if something goes wrong in the voting for the constitutional changes, it could even lead to early parliamentary elections. Prime Minister Kovacevski categorically says that the elections will be held in the regular term, however, the procedure and environment that no one can predict now, could bring different decisions and steps.
It’s certain that the opposition will press for early electionsin 2023 as well. IRI’s survey showed an advantage in the rating of VMRO-DPMNE, which is yet another reason for Mickoski and the team to seek early elections.
The inter-party atmosphere will be no better either. In the second half of 2023, SDSM will have to draw the contours of its presidential candidate. From Pendarovski’s strong PR campaign, it can be concluded that he wants to participate in the presidential race again. But even though in SDSM that issue has still not started to be reviewed, the ambient is not in favor of Pendarovski, who is credited with excessive soloing, flirting with the opposition and surprising loyalty to DUI. His positioning on the political scene as if he were an observer, and not an actor in politics with a highest position, has created distrust among the party that launched him and voted for him in the presidential elections in 2019. His moves, on the other hand, by engaging in the fight of the vulnerable social groups, children, in making home visits and visits to businesses and companies, made him more of a figure on the periphery than a figure in the center of Macedonian politics.
When it comes to politics, again we come back to the constitutional changes that are key for all future developments. Consultations on this issue have already started. If the constitutional changes don’t succeed, it will reduce the political strength of the ruling parties, thus also reduce the interest in running for the highest functions. If this important process does succeed, the ruling parties will get a new wind at their backs and new horizons in the future political developments.
Certainly, a central issue will also be whether Macedonia will detach from the corruption that is a reason for concern not only at home, but also among its partners, especially the United States. The signals that are coming are that 2023 will be a year tobe, or nottobe, in regards to the fight against this widespread evil that is tearing apart thestate and creating distrust in its international position.
On the foreign political level, Macedonia in January 2023 took over the OSCE chairmanship. The decision for this was made by a consensus of the members, at the OSCE ministerial meeting in Tirana in 2020. OSCE is the only organization where the United Stated and Russia are members together, where all decisions are made by a consensus and due to the war in Ukraine, the functioning of the organization, in which 57 countries are members, is extremely difficult, which will be a great challenge for the Macedonian chairmanship.
Analyzing this situation, recently,Minister of Foreign Affairs Bujar Osmani said that Macedonia in its policy will adhere to OSCE’s principles and commitments.
“As chair of the OSCE, we are protectors of the values of the organization and guardians of its commitments. If a participating country has violated those commitments, we cannot make compromises with the basic values for which the organization exists because of the need for consensus within the organization itself. Russia, through the aggression against Ukraine is violating its own commitments as a member of the OSCE and the commitments of the organizations”, said Osmani.
Kosovo, though it doesn’t affect Macedonia directly, due to the interest of the Albanian parties for its full recognition, and especially normalization of the relations between Pristina and Belgrade, is an inevitable part sometimes on the margins of Macedonian politics, but often also in the its center due to the security implications it radiates in the region. It remains to be seen whether 2023 will bring changes in that sense or Kosovo and Serbia will further continue in a situation of a frozen conflict.
The war in Ukraine and the possibility for it to end in 2023 are topics of all world analyses and forecasts. One of the possibilities being reviewed is to have peace negotiations with the mediation of the United Nations, more specifically, Secretary General Antonio Guterres. Ukraine publically statedthat it is in favor of holding the peace conference in February, but also expressed doubt that Russia will sit at the table for talks about ending the war. The ultimatum that Russia issued, that either Ukraine surrenders the occupied territories or the Kremlin will decide the fate of Ukraine, however, does not give hope that the war can end soon. February 24, 2023 will mark a year since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, an act that threw Europe and the world into uncertainty and an economic crisis of so far unseen proportions.
Usually at the start of every new year we say that uncertain times await the country, but this time 2023 will truly be a year of milestones in Macedonia because of the constitutional changes, the presidential and parliamentary elections that are approaching, as well as the prolonged consequences of the war in Ukraine, which mean an economic and security crisis for the entire continent and more broadly. The key question will be whether Macedonia will manage to get out of the Balkan swirl and continue the negotiations with the EU, or will again get stuck in historical arguments and crisis in the relations with Bulgaria.
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