by: МАЈА IVANOVSKA
After almost four years in opposition, the centre-right New Democracy won the early parliamentary elections in Greece, which were held on July 7, and regained power. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras orderly admitted defeat to his rival Kyriakos Mitsotakis.
New Democracy won 39.85% of the votes, while the leftist SYRIZA party of Tsipras came in second place with 31.53%. According to the preliminary results released by the Greek Ministry of Interior, New Democracy won 158 seats (including bonus MPs that the winner acquires), as opposed to 86 of SYRIZA. The Parliament in Greece has 300 parliament seats.
While last year the Republic of Greece and the Republic of North Macedonia finally put an end to the three-decade long name dispute, a year later, the public is fearing that with the change of government in Greece, there could be a change in the bilateral relations of the two countries, and hindering of the integration processes of North Macedonia
On this topic, what the results of the Greek early elections mean for North Macedonia, we spoke with representatives of the government and of the civil sector, with political analysts and citizens of Skopje and Veles.
THE NEW GOVERNMENT IN GREECE IS A TEST FOR THE PRESPA AGREEMENT
Although for such topics it is common for politicians, diplomats and experts in international politics to speak, the Editorial Office of CIVIL Media is with the opinion that for these and such issues, what citizens think is important, and not politicians. Hence, civil society organizations were the first address where we looked for answers regarding the influence of the Greek early parliamentary elections and the change of government, from a left-wing and friendly one towards the Prespa Agreement, to a right-wing government whose leader fiercely fought against the solutions that the Macedonian – Greek agreement achieved in overcoming the problem with the name.
“The establishment of the new government in Greece will be the first test for the Prespa Agreement, because we know that New Democracy was an opponent to the Agreement there, as VMRO-DPMNE was here. It’s good that the change first took place there, so that we can see how they will act towards the Agreement. It is likely for there to be problems in the implementation, but I wouldn’t say that the Agreement itself is threatened, since Kyriakos Mitsotakis has stated several times that there is no possibility for Greece to annul it. One of the reasons mentioned is that if this happens, then Turkey would demand the annulment of many agreements, which would be at harm for Greece”, says Aleksandar Krzalovski, Director of the Macedonian Center for International Cooperation (MCIC) in a conversation for CIVIL Media.
Krzalovski stressed that there is also no possibility for vetoing the start of the negotiations.
“Mitsotakis threatened several times with the possibility to veto the opening of the chapters, but at the very start of the negotiations there shouldn’t be, and we do not expect for there to be blocking from Greece, especially if all the other countries are in favour of giving a date for the start of the negotiations”, he adds.
Krzalovski does not see any danger in the short term, that is, this year, but does expect many obstacles and setbacks in the following period.
“I didn’t manage to see which minister was elected for Macedonia and Thrace, for their North Greece, for their part, and if it is person who is more radical in terms of the issue of our name, then we can expect many hindrances, in the sense that he will deal more with us than with North Greece, or to see if the Agreement is applied according to his interpretation, or the interpretation of his party, New Democracy, whether the Vergina flag will be waving, and for that to be treated as violation of the Agreement…Depending on that, problems should be expected during the implementation. But if a person like, for instance, the Minister of Foreign Affairs is chosen, who is not known as a radical, but rather a moderate politician, then maybe we will be better off than expected, because it would be in the interest of Greece to put this aside as a problem, since they have other and more serious problems. I think that now they should renew relations with Washington, and especially with Berlin. So, I don’t expect for there to be serious obstacles in the next period”, said Krzalovski.
THE GOVERNMENT DOES NOT EXPECT MAJOR DISRUPTIONS IN THE BILATERAL RELATIONS
Deputy Prime Minister Bujar Osmani, on the other hand, considers that there is no need for fear of disruptions in the relations between the two countries, and that the initial communication with the new government of Greece has been established.
“The democratic transition of the government is a value in itself. Regardless of who is winning. Furthermore, the Republic of North Macedonia and Greece have already signed an agreement for strategic partnership. The Prespa Agreement is an agreement that goes beyond the boundaries of a political party or a government. It is an international agreement, with an international guarantee, signed by the United Nations as a guarantor of the agreement. Therefore, I think that the Prespa Agreement will be a platform on which these good interethnic relations will be built and this strategic partnership between the countries in the future. Our path to the EU and NATO will also be based on this platform”, says Osmani.
“I don’t expect any major disruptions, because the foundations of this partnership have been created. The first communication with the new government has been established, therefore I expect for that communication to be established in all the sectors in the coming period, especially in terms of the support that the Greek government is giving to the negotiation process. I expect for this communication to be established in this period and for that cooperation to continue”, he adds.
GREEK RIGHTISTS WILL BE ECOURAGING FOR RIGHTISTS IN THE REPUBLIC OF NORTH MACEDONIA
“Every policy of a state affects the neighbouring countries, and certainly even broader. And in this context, it is especially important that a certain change should be expected in the policies of Republic of Greece towards the Republic of North Macedonia. What we shouldn’t fear is Mitsotakis going against the Prespa Agreement, even though he himself was a big opponent of that agreement. He, nevertheless, is aware that his country is part of the European Union, and that no matter how turbulent and balkanic, Greek politics have certain experience and tradition that respect at least some basic foundations of what an international agreement means”, considers the President of CIVIL, Xhabir Deralla. According to him, an argument plus in this direction is the fact that it is not just an agreement between two countries, but an agreement that is sponsored and guaranteed by many serious and big countries and alliances.
“What can be expected is a serious shift of the policies in Greece, with the arrival of a rightist, who belongs to a well-known political family clan structure, which, nonetheless, does have nationalistic and right-wing views, positions, policies and practices. This will affect our relations, in a way in which the current Greek political structure will demand certain digressions, and a certain slowdown is also possible, that is, blocking certain parts of the processes in which the Republic of North Macedonia is in now, and will be in the future”, says Deralla.
He thinks that it is also likely for Greece as a state to have bigger problems with human rights and freedoms in the coming period, and that this could certainly reflect on the relations between the two countries as well.
“In terms of the elections, great news is that Golden Dawn, the Greek neo-Nazis, did not enter the parliament, but this, on the other hand, could mean that they are a little less under the control of what is called parliamentary democracy in a country. It is possible for incidents to be expected that can also affect our citizens when visiting Greece. However, on the other hand, bad news in regards to the Greek far-right is that two pro-Russian, far-right parties have entered parliament, although with a far less number of MPs, which do not differ much from what Golden dawn represents”, he says.
Deralla considers that it is to be expected for the Greek rightists to act an encouraging and inciting way for the rightists in the Republic of North Macedonia.
“It sounds contradictory, but actually, that hashtag #Mickotakis was not made up totally incidentally…”, he points out.
WHAT DO THE CITIZENS THINK?
We spoke on this topic with citizens from Skopje and Veles.
A greater part of them do not believe that the victory of Mitsotaki and the new government in Greece can impact the Prespa Agreement. According to them, the Agreement cannot be cancelled, while some of those surveyed think that this is possible only with an agreement between the two countries.
“This is, however, a country that is serious and is a member of the EU, and it should not allow itself to make such a mistake of not respecting an international agreement”, says a citizen from Skopje.
Some of the citizens think that, still, the process with the Agreement can be changed, together with the change of Tsipras. “The politics regarding the Prespa Agreement will change. It was brought by Tsipras and Zaev, and now its Zaev and Mitsotakis, so something will change for sure”, considers another citizen.
CLOSE MONITORING OF THE SITUATION
Although Macedonia was the main trump of the two opposing sides of the early parliamentary elections in Greece, the probability that Mitsotakis will stand in the way of the implementation of the Agreement, and thus on the path of North Macedonia towards NATO and the EU, is, however, very small. Greece simply cannot allow itself not to respect the international agreement, especially ahead of the fact that it is yet to flatter the great European and world powers in order to be able to come out of the economic crisis, which is one of the key factors for the change of government in the country.
However, what should not be disregarded in any way in the following period is the possibility for the Greek right-wing to again condition the processes that our country has entered, and at the same time give encouraging incentive for the rightists in North Macedonia.
Therefore, experts warn that there should be close monitoring of the situation in the following period, and, certainly, work on preserving the already established relations between the two countries. What the country least needs in the following period is for the relations to turn cold and blocking of the European integration processes again.
Topic prepared by:
Dehran Muratov (interview with Aleksandar Krzalovski)
Maja Ivanovska (interview with Bujar Osmani and Xhabir Deralla)
Biljana Jordanovska and Angela Petrovska (surveys)
camera: Dehran Muratov and Angela Petrovska
editing: Biljana Jordanovska and Arian Mehmeti
translation: Natasha Cvetkovska
