By Xhabir Deralla
Someone might say, “This has been a difficult year.” Yes, that couldn’t be more accurate. In fact, it would be even more precise to say that we are coming to the end of an extraordinarily difficult five-year period. Five years is a span in which entire nations and alliances implement strategies, societies transform, and the face of the planet changes. The period behind us has been truly grim.
According to Worldometer, the COVID-19 pandemic has claimed seven million lives[1]. In June, the UNHCR estimated that 122.6 million people worldwide were forced to leave their homes, of which 43.7 million are refugees[2]. Nearly one-third of these refugees come from just two countries: 6.7 million from Ukraine[3] and 6.3 million from Syria[4]. Poverty and hunger[5], brutal military aggressions and armed conflicts, and the vertiginous rise of dark ideologies are tearing apart the global order, fueling societal divisions and tensions. Violence, fear, and hatred have become a daily reality, even in countries not directly affected by war or other extreme conditions.
The world is facing troubles that seemed unimaginable just five years ago. It was enough to see how the global health crisis, the COVID pandemic, completely exposed the severe failures and shortcomings in national and international systems for protecting the population[6]. It also further highlighted a tragic reality. The gap between the poor and the wealthy continues to widen, both between nations and within individual countries, not just in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, but across various sectors such as the economy, social welfare, healthcare, and the environment. This divide extends further to security, education, and quality of life, with the most vulnerable populations bearing the brunt of these disparities.
The aggression that changed the world: What does today’s world look like?
Global polarization and tensions became even more pronounced after Russia’s brutal military aggression against Ukraine on February 24, 2022. In fact, it changed the world as we knew it. As heinous and devastating as they are, the war crimes and genocidal strategy against the Ukrainian people are merely fragments of a broader mosaic of chaos and suffering. Ultimately, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine forced the West to confront the harsh reality that Moscow had long been waging a hybrid war against the free world.
The grim picture of the world is further sealed by the war in Gaza[7], where war crimes and ethnic cleansing have become an everyday reality for Palestinians. More than 45,000 people have died, and 1.9 million (90%) have been displaced in just over a year during the war launched by the Israeli army following the Hamas terrorist attack on October 7, 2023 that killed more than 1,200 Israelis[8].
These conflicts are just part of a list of over 110 armed conflicts worldwide today, according to the Geneva Academy[9]. Some of these conflicts are nearly invisible to the global public, while others dominate agency tickers. Many of them began or were reignited in recent years, while some have lasted more than half a century. Russia’s military aggression and the conflicts that followed or intensified in the Middle East have shaken the foundations of international law. Alongside these wars, the world is under assault from nationalism and authoritarianism[10], which threaten democracy in Europe and globally.
Crises rooted in history and systemic issues: The lack of political will and true leadership
“The foundations of international law and multilateral cooperation are at serious risk of collapse due to cumulative failures of political leadership. We face the most perilous moment since the Second World War,” reads the statement from The Elders’ board meeting[11] in São Paulo on May 29, 2024. They couldn’t be more right – the world’s international law is crumbling by the day.
It is not enough to merely recognize the causes and consequences of the dreadful crisis the world faces. It is not even enough to acknowledge that solutions exist. The solutions are known—they have been elaborated and promoted time and again. The crises of today are deeply rooted in the international system, history, and unresolved issues between nations. What we truly lack is the political will and true leadership to implement them. For instance, Moscow could decide today to end the war and withdraw its aggressive forces behind Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders.
Researchers, experts, analysts, opinion makers, and activists continually propose improved versions of solutions and models for overcoming historical and present crises, as well as new frameworks for cooperation, resilience, and solidarity. All in vain.
The tragic crises we are discussing here were not only predictable, but the world also had the resources to prevent or mitigate them. Yet, this did not happen. The powerful and the wealthy could have recognized the ominous signals of the FSB’s operations and its agent, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. The Kremlin’s aggressive policies and methods of hybrid warfare were evident long before they escalated into war and global upheavals. Warnings came from all sides – from Ukraine and the Baltic states to civil society organizations like CIVIL in North Macedonia, and others – but mainstream politics, business, media, and even civil society were not ready to open their eyes.
The gravity of the issue: Beyond rhetorical warnings of the past
No, this is not an I-told-you-so paragraph. The world received ample warnings about what would happen if Putin’s dictatorship and military-propaganda machinery were allowed to rise and strengthen, starting from the early years of the new millennium. The military interventions in Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, along with numerous other critical events during that period – culminating in the systematic spread of disinformation and corruption – all clearly signaled the Russian dictator’s and criminal’s subsequent moves. However, instead of confronting these tactics, many European and global leaders chose to turn a blind eye and normalize everything dictated by the Kremlin (!)[12].
This policy of ignoring the obvious created fertile ground for the spread of authoritarianism, nationalism, and polarization that today shake global stability to its core. Simply put, the world was not prepared to learn from its mistakes. Turning a blind eye to facts, prioritizing business interests and profits for the most powerful, accompanied by diplomatic smiles and an inability to foresee the consequences of hybrid operations and the corruption of elites, contributed to the weakening of democracies’ resilience as a whole. Thus, one mistake led to another, each larger than the last, in an endless chain of errors.
The ex-Yugoslav federation: A stark illustration of Europe’s weaknesses and the vulnerabilities of post-communist societies
The story of the former communist federation in the Balkans stands as a stark illustration of Europe’s weaknesses, and even more so, the vulnerabilities of post-communist societies. The region once held the promise of symbolizing successful renewal through international aid and diplomatic efforts after the tragedy of Yugoslavia’s bloody dissolution. Instead, it became a victim of local oligarchies, political illiteracy, nationalism, and corruption. The ailments of a failed transition have left deep scars, creating chaos where democracy never fully took root.
On such unstable ground, the Moscow bloodthirsty bear found an easy opportunity to exert influence. The former Yugoslav republics, which once looked with disdain at the Russian model of tyranny, have gradually fallen prey to disinformation, political manipulation, and economic and military-political influences orchestrated by the Kremlin. Of course, other major players, such as Beijing, Ankara, and Middle East centers of power, are also involved. Thus, the declared pro-Western, Euro-Atlantic orientation of the ex-Yugoslav states (except for Serbia, which has no intention of joining NATO) pales in comparison to the propaganda tsunami from Russia. Meanwhile, the region receives incomparably larger sums of money for reconstruction and development from the West than from the East, which primarily offers questionable investments from Russia and debt bondage from China.
The decades-long aversion to Moscow, replaced by pliancy in the face of its propaganda and corruption, is nothing short of a tragedy. It underscores not only the vulnerability of post-communist societies but also Europe’s and the West’s inability to build a sustainable model of democracy and stability in the region.
PERSPECTIVES: The imminent threat of global conflict and crumbs on the fragile plate of hope
Condoleezza Rice, former U.S. Secretary of State, wrote in an article for Foreign Affairs that we are approaching a period where a direct military conflict between superpowers is possible[13]. Such a conflict would have unimaginable consequences for the entire world.
The escalating geopolitical tensions among superpowers, combined with the aggressive expansionism of regional powers, pave an alarming path toward a catastrophic global conflict, with the highest probability being a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO[14]. With the arms race intensifying and nuclear rhetoric crossing into horrifying reality—evidenced by the deployment of nuclear-capable long-range ballistic missiles against civilians in Ukraine—the specter of miscalculation or deliberate provocation of global conflict becomes ever more menacing. The world teeters on the edge, where one misstep could unleash destruction on an unimaginable scale. In the absence of effective international conflict prevention mechanisms, proxy wars, hybrid operations, and territorial disputes may escalate into direct confrontations, devastating countless lives, economies, and ecosystems worldwide, leaving an indelible mark.
Amid the crumbs now scattered on the fragile plate of hope, it is imperative for the free world to embrace proactive diplomacy, uniting democratic nations to uphold and enforce international norms without compromise. The protracted political debates over granting Ukraine NATO membership serve as a stark reminder that hesitation and indecision pave the way for tragedy.
The failed mission of the United Nations as a whole stands as yet another example of how international norms and laws have been mocked, misused, and abused by authoritarian players like Russia. Without substantial reform, the UN risks further irrelevance in addressing modern global crises.
SOLUTIONS: Safeguarding democracy and global stability demands a holistic approach
Only deeply reformed United Nations, alongside a strengthened and more agile NATO, is essential to ensuring greater efficiency in deterring the looming catastrophe. Global institutions must evolve to confront incoming threats with decisive action, leaving no room for ambiguity.
However, safeguarding democracy and global stability requires more than institutional reform. It demands a holistic approach, including greater investment in effective conflict prevention strategies. This means the rigorous implementation of truly enforced sanctions that hit authoritarian regimes where it hurts most, alongside the preparation and readiness for military and peacekeeping ground operations when necessary.
Civil society and think tank organizations are indispensable in this equation. Those true to their missions serve as the strategic backbone of societies, fostering resilience and countering the influence of authoritarian and expansionist regimes. Civil society groups are often at the forefront of raising awareness, promoting transparency, and exposing disinformation campaigns that destabilize democracies. Think tanks provide critical expertise and policy recommendations, equipping governments with data-driven strategies to counter emerging threats. Their role in mobilizing public support, advocating for democratic values, and bridging the gap between policy and grassroots action is vital.
The fight to save democracy is not confined to political arenas or military theaters. It goes without saying that it is a collective effort that requires the involvement of all sectors of society. Only through unified, strategic action – driven by reformed global institutions and supported by the active participation of civil society – can the free world hope to withstand the relentless rise of authoritarianism and violent, criminal expansionism.
[1] Worldometer, Coronavirus, Last updated: April 13, 2024, 01:00 GMT, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
[2] UNHCR, Figures at a glance, end of June, 2024, https://www.unhcr.org/about-unhcr/who-we-are/figures-glance
[3] UNHCR, Ukraine Emergency, https://www.unrefugees.org/emergencies/ukraine/
[4] World Vision, Syrian refugee crisis, Nov. 2024, https://www.worldvision.org/refugees-news-stories/syrian-refugee-crisis-facts
[5] WHO, Hunger numbers stubbornly high for three consecutive years as global crises deepen: UN report, July 24, 2024, https://www.who.int/news/item/24-07-2024-hunger-numbers-stubbornly-high-for-three-consecutive-years-as-global-crises-deepen–un-report
[6] UN SDSN, The Lancet Report, Sept. 15, 2022, https://www.unsdsn.org/news/the-lancet-new-report-details-massive-global-failures-of-covid-19-response-calls-for-improved-multilateral-cooperation-to-end-pandemic-and-effectively-manage-future-global-health-threats/
[7] Human Rights Watch, Nov. 14, 2024, https://www.hrw.org/report/2024/11/14/hopeless-starving-and-besieged/israels-forced-displacement-palestinians-gaza
[8] CSIS, Hamas’ October 7 Attack, Dec. 19, 2023, https://www.csis.org/analysis/hamass-october-7-attack-visualizing-data
[9] Geneva Academy, Today’s Armed Conflicts, https://geneva-academy.ch/galleries/today-s-armed-conflicts
[10] Freedom House, Reflecting on 2024: A Challenging Year for Democracy and Freedom, Dec. 18, 2024, https://freedomhouse.org/article/reflecting-2024-challenging-year-democracy-and-freedom
[11] The Elders, The Elders warn that failures of political leadership risk collapse of international order, May 29, 2024, https://theelders.org/news/elders-warn-failures-political-leadership-risk-collapse-international-order
[12] The New York Times, Twenty Years of Putin Playing the West in 3 Minutes | NYT Opinion, May 24, 2022, https://youtu.be/pCCTf17ZiIs.
[13] Condoleezza Rice, “The Perils of Isolationism,” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2024.
[14] Rich Outzen, “Pacing scenarios”, Atlantic Council, December 3, 2024, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/ac-turkey-defense-journal/pacing-scenarios/
TO BE CONTINUED: Part 2 – Unseen rise of authoritarianism and visions beyond the crisis
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Europe on the edge: How Russia’s hybrid warfare could escalate into a full-scale military conflict
Russia’s war economy and Western negligence: Peace and freedom between profit and bloody war
