By MARJAN ZABRCANEC
A year after the beginning of Russia’s military invasion against Ukraine and what prevails as a global perception and message that travels around the world today is the heroism of the Ukrainian people and the unification of the Western democratic world in supporting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.
Putin is further away from the victory he had hoped for, because even after an entire year he hasn’t managed to neither get closer to Kyiv, nor occupy and secede a lager geostrategic territory of Ukraine. On the contrary, the myth about the supposed strength of the Russian army has been shattered, the Kremlin has suffered enormous damages and losses of its military and human capacities, world support has come down to a minimum, while the West has introduced complex sanctions on Russia that in combination with the losses of resources represents a serious blow to the development of the Russian economy to which the population was accustomed to until now.
The perception of Putin as a loser is influenced also by the failures of the Russian information interventions in the Western Balkans, that is, the fact that Putin failed to prevent NATO membership of Montenegro and North Macedonia, or Serbia’s European integration. The Western Balkans is almost independent of the Russian economy, given that the region is successfully diversifying its gas supply and is becoming energy independent thanks to the joint European energy policy and to the increasing use of renewable energy sources for which we are especially suited for as a climate.
Our complete independence from Russia can also be seen by the fact that North Macedonia’s trade with the European Union in 2022 was more than 12 billion euros in total annual import and export values, as opposed to just 470 million euros in trade with Russia, which is 25 times less in comparison to the trade with the EU.
Such tendencies point to the irrefutable fact that the number of citizens from the Western Balkans who declare themselves neutral in regards to the Russian war against Ukraine will only decrease, and the region will continue to integrate Western-democratically in conditions when the East is not only not an alternative, but also represents danger to security and peace.
Russia is fueling ethno-nationalism in the Balkans, is using historical disputes between countries
Despite the intensive propagandas and disinformation interventions coming from (pro)Russian centers in North Macedonia and the region, the ultimate outcome was the successful NATO membership of our country and Montenegro. Nevertheless, the Russian information invasion on our region must not be underestimated as it has strong consequences on maintaining the peace, cooperation and friendships between the Balkan peoples and states. The Russian foreign policy, in addition to unofficial channels, often also uses its official diplomacy to strengthen ethno-nationalism in the region, that is, to strengthen disputes that have a historical sign, such as the Bulgarian-Macedonian historical issue.
Such is the example with the congratulation for the Day of the All-Slavic Educators Saints Cyril and Methodius, May 24, 2021. In Skopje, the Embassy of Russia, through Twitter, congratulated us on the holiday with a quote from Russian President Vladimir Putin, which reads:
“Today in Russia is a solemn day – the Day of the Slavic script, and script came to us from the Macedonian land”. But at the same time quite hypocritically and with a clear intention to fuel ethno-nationalism, in Sofia, the Russian Ambassador there, Eleonora Mitrofanova, congratulated the holiday of the holy brothers, as the Day of the Bulgarian alphabet. She added that without a doubt the role of Bulgaria in spreading the Slavic literacy, language and culture was priceless.
Similar is the example with the Russian congratulation on the occasion of the birthday of Goce Delcev addressed to the Macedonian people, while in Sofia that same Russian diplomacy congratulated the birthday of Nikolai Ignatiev, the Russian diplomat who signed the San Stefano Treaty, which is devastating for Macedonia. The Treaty established the San Stefano Bulgaria as an independent state including parts of Macedonia within its framework, completely contrary to the ideals for a free Macedonian state for which Delcev fought.
Recently, Russian interventions have been particularly visible in BiH as well, through the support of the inciting statements of Dodic about the secession of Republika Srpska, as well as in Serbia, through the support of the narrative “Kosovo will never be an independent state”, which of course is completely contrary to the policy that Russia is applying to Ukraine, declaring one-sided secession of territories through military occupation of another state.
The Western Balkans is becoming energy independent
Even though this is probably the most difficult military conflict in the new 21st century on European soil, we still did manage to overcome the energy consequences as a region, without having more serious consequences for the population. As a region and as a country, we managed to successfully prevent plant breakdowns, restrictions in electricity supply, and a steep rise of domestic bills. There was neither any shortage of food or other basic household products. Winter is slowly coming to an end, and not a single Western Balkans country has suffered, either form an energy crises or food crisis.
Although fears for this year were huge, it can be concluded that Southeast Europe suffered more damage during the time of political changes in Ukraine from 2005 (Orange Revolution) than today. Then, the countries of Southeast Europe were left without delivery of natural gas that transited through Ukraine, the main artery for the transfer of this energy in those years.
At that time, the EU did not have a common response to the gas crisis, on the contrary, each member state signed direct long-term contracts with “Gazprom”, according to a different methodology. Unlike then, today the EU, led by Germany, leads a harmonized energy policy, acts united in the procurement of energy with the purpose to ensure a better price, and now the Western Balkan countries are also fully integrated in the overall European policy, which is of course of key importance for successfully overcoming the crisis, along with the expansion of the use of the sun and wind for production of electricity.*
The East is no alternative, our economic exchange with the EU is 25 times greater than the one with Russia
Stories that there were supposed Eastern alternatives for us as a country and for the entire region are not only not founded, but are also dangerous if we take into consideration that we belong to Europe both historically and geographically and that our people have on many occasions confirmed their European and Euro-Atlantic strategic orientation.
That neither Russia, nor China, can be an alternative for our future is indicated by the fact that we haven’t received anything from so-called East or so-called Euro-Asia in comparison to what the EU is already delivering and offering us – billions of euros of direct support, support for the institutions, European standards for better life of the citizens. It is precisely the West, not the East, that is offering all this to us.
And finally, that our only economically correct option is democracy and Europe is also indicated by the data on the trade exchange between North Macedonia and the EU and Russia. Namely, the total trade exchange in 2022 (total import and export value) between North Macedonia and the EU was 12 billion and 127 million euros, whereas the exchange with Russia was 470 million euros, which is 25 times less economic exchange compared to that with the EU. In regards to the economic exchange of North Macedonia with China, it is 12 times less than the one with the European Union.**
To abandon the neutrality in regards to the Russian war against Ukraine is hidden support for Putin
The inclination of a significant part of the population of the region towards Serbia, Turkey and Hungary is an indisputable fact, but our friendship with these countries must in no way be turned into a reason for our neutrality, when it comes to the Russian invasion against Ukraine.
Neither Serbia, nor Turkey, nor Hungary are neutral – those are myths behind which is hidden someone’s dangerous agenda to justify Putin’s military aggression.
Serbia is not neutral because in the United Nations it voted FOR the resolution that directly condemns the Russian war in Ukraine and that directly gives support to the sovereignty of Ukraine. At the same time, Serbia is demonstrating decisiveness in resolving the dispute with Kosovo and is unequivocally rushing on the European tracks to Brussels.
Turkey is a member of NATO, the alliance that is unequivocally helping Ukraine, the alliance of states that in no way is or can be neutral in regards to this issue. Erdogan cannot be neutral when he himself confirms that he told Putin “The Kremlin should be returned to its rightful owners. They are also our descendants at the same time, the people who live there. If you make this step, if you leave us, you will free the Crimean Tatars and Ukraine as well”. When asked what the end of the war in Ukraine should look like, Erdogan has said that the land the Russians have conquered must be returned to Kyiv. This clearly shows that Turkey is on the side of the Ukrainian sovereignty.
It’s similar with Hungary and Orban as well. Hungary is a member of NATO and is not neutral in regards to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Another confirmation of this is the latest statement of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who said that Russia cannot win, because the whole Western world has lined up behind Ukraine and called for immediate truce and peace negotiations, emphasizing the nuclear risk that Russia poses.
Neutrality, as a position in this case, cannot be neither a principled, humane, nor European position. The Macedonian people have always fought against occupations, avoided war conflicts and demonstrated openness, friendship, cooperation. Hence, it is impermissible for us to accept neutrality when it comes to the defense of the Ukrainian sovereignty, when it comes to the loss of thousands of human lives and millions of people displaced, as a result of the military intervention by another state – Russia.
* data from the publication of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation “Europe in crisis, the Balkans in uncertainty”, analysis of Mitko Andreevski titled “The Ukrainian crisis and the Russian gas as a weapon for political goals”
** data from the State Statistical Office
Translation: N. Cvetkovska
