By XHABIR DERALLA
Before you is a short version of eight scenarios for North Macedonia for 2023. All of the scenarios are based on personal perceptions and assessments, NOT on specific statements and knowledge. The text, in some places, is with deliberate exaggerations and satire, the goal of which is to make the readers laugh, but also think. Still, no scenario is impossible. Not even the eighth one.
Scenario 1: Radicalization of the opposition
North Macedonia is caught in a swirl of internal and radical crises.At the internal level, the radical opposition, unhappy because of the numerous political failures, radicalizes its rhetoric, and then also starts to act radically. The tensions between the Macedonians and Albanians is a space where nationalists do best. And so the radical opposition organizes violent protests and tries with all its might to shift the political tensions to the inter-ethnic level. Several explosive devices explode in the country that causes overall chaos and panic among the population.
VMRO-DPMNE wins the elections with six MPs more than SDSM. Still, it does not manage to form a government due to a completely collapsed coalition capacity. The country sinks in general insecurity and crisis. New elections are prepared that are expected to be held at the beginning of 2024.
Scenario 2: Bulgarian syndrome
The radicalized opposition wins the early parliamentary elections in May. Levica submits most of the complaints on election irregularities, but again they forget to put a stamp, so the SEC rejects all of them.
The reason for Mickoski’s failure to form a government is that not a single more significant party of the Albanians wants to form a coalition with him, because of his ultranationalist approach in the election campaign.
The political elites increasingly more see new elections as the way out of the crisis. Civil’s electoral analysts, on the other hand, say the country is affected by the Bulgarian syndrome. The political forces are just as muchequal as they are far from the possibilitiesof an agreement on a common pro-European agenda.
Scenario 3: A refugee crisis, hybrid attacks, destabilization
At the beginning of summer 2023, as if the internal and regional problems are not enough, the entire region faces a strong wave of refugees.
Starting with terrorist attacks and other security incidents, and ending with frequent violent clashes and exchange of fire between extremist groups and incidentsat state borders, the security situation in the country is difficult and complicated. The army and military capacities are a target of cyber-attacks, subversions and even some terrorist attacks.
The United States “black list” for a large number of politicians, businessmen and media bosses from the country is activated. A series of scandals and disinformation disturb the public and shakes the trust in the institutions.
Scenario 4: VMRO-DPMNE disintegrates
Towards the end of 2023, VMRO-DPMNE faces complete disintegration. Not a single campaign of Mickoski succeeds fordestabilizing the country and creating a crisis and early elections, and thus saving his party chair. And Gruevskifrom Budapest sends a vicious letter and publically renounceshim. And says that he would come back, but that he fears prison. Then he edits the post on Facebook, but it’s too late.
Apasiev is rubbing his hands, expecting to win over the disappointed vmros in his party, but Maksim Dimitrievski is quicker. But for Maksim it’s not enough that the membership of his party is growing, he also runs for president of VMRO-DPMNE. Gruevski rejects him. A series of hilarious satires that Frontline publishes reveals the real dimension of politics. The public laughs loudly, while VMRO-DPMNE disintegrates.
Scenario 5: The return of Gruevski
In the autumn, although there is not much of a favorable environment for that and the field is not completely “clean”, Gruevski returns from Budapest and passes through the so-called Triumphal gate. At the square, next to the Warrior on a HorseMonument, in addition to the heads of VMRO-DPMNE, he is also welcomed by DimitarApasiev, the Russian Ambassador, BrankoGeroski, Vladimir Milcin, Vesna Baby, DanelaArsovska and Pero Kamikaza, who then get up on the stage and sing in his honor.
The authorities arrest Gruevski at the end of the celebration at the square. On the way to the “Idrizovo” prison, the van is intercepted by a police vehicle in which is a courier who hands the driver a decision from the Court of Appeal that all verdicts for Gruevski have been cancelled and are returning for a retrial in the Basic Criminal Court in Skopje. So that he doesn’t wait for a taxi, the police offer Gruevski a ride to home, but not in the trunk.
The capital city is left undecorated, in darkness and silence, which is often disrupted by shots fired and gunfire, and sirens from emergency vehicles. The state slowly disappears.
Scenario 6: Fall of the pro-European government in North Macedonia
The scenarios for overthrowing the pro-European government in North Macedonia come true. Political party leaders who are not in power or are in the ruling coalition, but think that they can blackmail to get to more power and money, enter into various combinations in order to overthrow the current ruling structure. The media war heats up.
As the political crisis deepens, there are more and more armed incidents in which separate radical groups settle scores with each other, both on political and ethnic grounds. The pro-Russian centers of power in the Balkans give the radicals open support. The Russian spy networks carry out increasingly more successful subversions that instill fear and panic among the population.
In such an atmosphere, preparations for early parliamentary elections begin that open a long series of unsuccessful political processes that move the country further and further away from its European future.
Scenario 7: North Macedonia pulls through. Barely.
The Russian and Serbian propaganda from the outside and ultranationalist propaganda from the inside intensify in 2023. The opposition organizes protests demanding early parliamentary elections.
Kovacevski’s government experiences a mini reconstruction. Immediately after the reconstruction, he engages in two major and important reforms: the judiciary and the electoral system. Both of the reforms make early elections impossible.
On New Year’s Eve 2023 – 2024, Civil Media’s journalist on duty tweets: “The country avoids collapse of the Euro-Atlantic agenda. Barely. Good luck in 2024”.
Scenario 8: A year of prosperity and unity
European and world crises continue in 2023 as well, which is used as a pretext for destructive action of radicalized nationalists and populists all around the world, hence also in the region and in North Macedonia.
Still, with the help of the United States and the EU, the country manages to overcome the biggest challenges in 2023. The government continues solving social problems, the fight against poverty, the defense against hybrid attacks, the fight against terrorism, disinformation… It can be noticed that a significant number of intellectuals, media and NGOs supporting democratic processes and the strategic interests of the country are becoming active.
In 2023, Bulgarians, Croats, Montenegrins, Jews and Egyptians are included in the Constitution. The highway to the EU becomes wider and brighter than ever before.
At the end of 2023, North Macedonia leaves behind a year of strong challenges, from which it comes out as a stable, prosperous, democratic, European country, which its neighbors and countries in the world look at with respect.
In the last days of December 2023, a photo of a hooded person appears in some of the media, claiming to be Apasiev coming out of the Russian Embassy. The part of the photo that shows that he is holding a Russian passport in his hands is circled in red. He denies the allegations, claiming it to be a set up by one of the increasingly more numerous companies for information technology and development of artificial intelligence, a sector in the country that is also developing strongly in 2023. Claims appear on the social networks that he just renewed his passport. The Russian Embassy in Skopje refuses to comment.
Translation: N. Cvetkovska
