By XHABIR DERALLA
Winter is coming… This sinister expression is the title of the first episode of the cult HBO series “Game of Thrones”.
As the summer wore on, Russian propagandists used this phrase more and more. Europe’s dependence on Russian gas and other energy sources is the result of greed for profit and self-induced political blindness to Putin’s totalitarian and belligerent politics. Blindness that has lasted for two decades. European countries let their guard down and let Putin lure them to the low prices he offered for Russian natural resources and energy. But along with the low prices, came the high political price.
Russian energy is part of Putin’s “arsenal”
European politicians have fallen into a long slumber, while Russian energy has grown into an important part of Putin’s “arsenal” for waging a hybrid war against the West. When Putin invaded Georgia in 2008, they woke up for just a bit, but Putin stroked them on their cheek, and they resumed their romantic slumber. The second war in Chechnya (1999-2000), coinciding with the beginning of Putin’s rule, was barely noticed.
Some Western politicians, along with the man with the cold smile, at the time also questioned whether NATO even made sense to exist. Putin was a regular guest at NATO summits. When Putin invaded Ukraine in February 2014, Europe woke up, but it remained hangovered for eight years, until the start of full-scale aggression against Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Fortunately, the United States was alert at the critical moment and is now the leader in the delivery of military aid to Ukraine.
For Putin, gas and oil are weapons of war, with which he fights against sanctions and against the West’s political and military aid to Ukraine. Now, the expression “winter is coming”, apart from propaganda, has become a real strategic threat to Europe. But is it really so?
Russians have “proved” themselves in Ukraine: Thieves and bloodthirsty maniacs, sadists and murderers
It seems that of all the weapons he used in the bloody aggression against the Ukrainian nation, only the army and weapons are his weak points. Everything else – blackmail, espionage, cyber attacks and propaganda – works at least a little better for him. Putin’s military, paramilitary and private armies have proven themselves to be thieves and bloodthirsty maniacs, sadists and murderers in the “showdown” with the civilian population.
Ruscists have also proven to possess extremely low combat morale and an even lower level of military skills. Their military strategy is a century old, much of the weaponry is from the era of the Soviet Union.
Offensive for the liberation of Ukraine
On the other hand, Russians showed that they know how to run away in panic, leaving even the cans of their meal unfinished, when facing brave Ukrainian men and women who launched an offensive to liberate their country on August 29. In just a few days, Ukrainian forces managed to liberate tens of thousands of square kilometers, incomparably more and faster than it took the Russians to occupy them. And all this with only a tenth of what Ukrainian forces need to really give a proportionate military response to Russian aggression.
Putin lost the war on the first day
I have written many times about the past 200 days of Russian aggression, but it is good to keep thinking about it: Putin lost the war on the first day, when brutality and terror of the civilian population became obvious: his forces do not make difference between military and civilian targets. Ruscist propagandists call for the extermination of the Ukrainian nation, say that Ukrainians are not humans and that there is no Ukrainian state, language and identity. Now his threat “Winter is coming” seems not to bear fruit.
A long and cold winter… for Putin, too.
Europe withstood the pandemic. Adapts to climate change. It will also endure the “long cold winter” that Putin threatens with. In Germany, capacities with monumental dimensions are being rapidly built for the transformation of energy capacities. The same is happening in most of the big democracies. NATO is expanding and strengthening. Putin’s propaganda shows increasingly weak results (except in the Balkans).
Therefore, the threat of winter is shortsighted. The winter will be long and cold for Putin as well. For him, winter began much earlier than the one he himself threatens with. After all, the Ukrainian offensive is also the beginning of the winter for Putin and his ruscist regime.
Maybe it’s time for the Russian progressive forces to leave the cafes in Berlin, Vienna, Prague, Belgrade and wherever they have escaped from the Putin regime, and get to work. Their homework has long been unfinished – to free Russia from the yoke of the dictator and war criminal, Putin. Brave Ukrainian men and women have already completed a large part of that task.
However, let’s not be overly optimistic. Indeed, winter is coming, long and cold. Full of surprises and twists.
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